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NFL Armchair GM: Adrian Peterson or Chris Johnson

Ten weeks into the season the leading running back in the NFL is not Adrian Peterson. No, Peterson is second behind none other than Chris Johnson of the Tennessee Titans. I saw this and was inspired to write this post, only to find out that Trent Dilfer already broached the subject on Countdown Daily. However, this is still a great subject. Would you rather have Peterson or Johnson, power or speed?

The question, of course, is not that simple the reality is that though these running backs are known singularly for these attributes, they are more complex players than that.

Chris Johnson is famous for running a 4.24 in the 40-yard dash in the 2008 NFL Draft combine. That makes him the fastest player timed since they started using more accurate electronic equipment. This means that he is fast, almost epitomized by pure speed. Johnson is more than just speed though. Even though he is a little light at running back at 200 pounds, he has some power and the quickness to get around defenders. This season he has ran for 1,091 yards so far with an incredible 6.4 yards per carry. He is also a very useful receiver out of the backfield. This season he has caught 30 passes for 262 yards. He is the player the New Orleans Saints hoped Reggie Bush would be.

Adrian Peterson is a fierce runner whose vicious style is comparable to the St. Louis Rams Stephen Jackson and the Dallas Cowboys Marion Barber. The difference is that he has some speed. His combine numbers are not as impressive as Johnson’s. Peterson “only” posted a 4.40 for his 40-yard dash. Still what makes AP so freaking dangerous is that he is fast, he has incredible agility, he is strong, and he has the rare vision to rival some of the most famous running backs in the history of football. This season he has 917 yards on 5.1 yards per carry.

Peterson is also supposed to be a decent threat out of the backfield for Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings. He has only caught 21 passes though, but has actually out gained Johnson in terms of yards per reception with a 9.5 average compared to Johnson’s 8.7.

The reason so many people believed Peterson was the best back at the beginning of the season is that he can run in all situations. AP can break off a long run which he has shown by ranking second in the league with runs of 20 yards or more with 11 (Johnson is first with 16). He can also score on a short field inside the red zone, something that Johnson struggles with despite his aggressive running style.

The knock on Peterson is that the very rough running style that makes him so dangerous also makes AP susceptible to fumbles. This season he already has four fumbles and over his three year NFL career he has 17 (losing 11 of them). Turnovers are drive killers so this is this hero’s major fatal flaw.

The other knock of Chris Johnson is that since he is so fast he knows it and is always looking to get to the outside since he can scamper for 30 or 40 yards without much of a problem. He does not have the same fumble issues though, and that is huge.

I think Dilfer made an excellent point when he said they are both the best running back in the NFL, and as a professional game manager when he was playing he must have some insight into how good a running back is. Still, he said that he would take Peterson for his versatility when running the ball. I have to disagree. The game is changing and a running back needs to have versatility all over the field. Johnson’s speed and quickness on the outside as a receiving option make him the running back for the modern game. Peterson will always have a place in football, but watching him catch the ball out of the backfield it appears he needs those few steps behind the offensive line to get going while Johnson simply needs to turn around.

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Adrian Peterson: MIA from the Vikings Offense

I have seen quite a few Minnesota Vikings games this season, as well as a few Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints games, and I have one thing to say. Adrian Peterson is being misused. Yes, Adrian Peterson- the most fear running back in the entirety of football- is being grossly under utilized by Brett Favre and the Vikings despite the fact that they are 7-1 and sitting atop the NFC Central in the NFL standings.

I say this because I have watch the Vikings limp through enough games to see that the offense is utterly unimaginative. I mentioned before that I have seen a few New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts games not only because they are undefeated, but because of the way they use their running backs. They routinely dump passes off to them and those dump off passes have gone for big yards or been just as effective as a run up the middle.

Anybody that looks at the Vikings season stats will see that Favre also likes the little pass to the running back, only that running back is Chester Taylor, not Adrian Peterson. When Peterson has gotten the ball on a little dump off he has been a monster, averaging 9.9 yards a reception. Still, he has just 19 catches in eight games.

Why has he not gotten the ball more? It is not like he is being saved because he is getting overworked running the ball. He is averaging only 20.3 carries a game. I have seen him go entire quarters with just one or two touches. This is ridiculous. Favre has the league’s scariest offensive weapon, a running back that tears through the jungle of defenders like a madman with a machete. He cannot be brought to the ground by a defensive back trying to arm tackle him, yet I see him rarely getting to the outside to terrorize these diminutive players.

I liken this wide receiver Andre Rison’s experience with the Cleveland Browns in 1995. Rison was a playmaker that made the Pro Bowl four times in his first six seasons in the NFL with the Colts and the Atlanta Falcons. In 1995 he signed a one-year deal with the Browns and his numbers dropped to then career lows. The Browns were using him as a diversion. It pissed Rison off and started a civil war between the Browns fans and the receiver

Peterson is being used as a diversion as well, and I want see him angry. This diversionary tactic has not always worked. There have been more than few quarters and even games that have kind of clunked along as Peterson has been forgotten in the backfield or has simply stayed on the sidelines for half the downs. Obviously, the Vikes are not going to finish 5-11 like those Browns (also the last season the original Browns played in Cleveland), but they are undefeated either.

Imagine if the Vikings used Peterson like the Colts and Peyton Manning use Joseph Addai. Give Peterson four or more chances to catch the ball out of the backfield and watch as the linebacker covering him defecates as Peterson runs him over and reaches the secondary with malice.

I say this not only because I have Adrian Peterson on my fantasy team and would like to not regret picking him first, but because I think the Minnesota Vikings would immediately become a favorite to win the Super Bowl.

I suspect that Brett Favre has something to do with this. As much as he says he is happy to be a team player, he is a star and drew mockery for his very public waffling the last two summers. The reality is that this guy likes attention and he likes being a star. I would not be surprised to read a player’s or beat reporter’s account in a couple years stating that he sabotaged Peterson’s numbers for his own personal glory.

Of course, keep in mind, that I am a Bears fan and have an undying hate for the Packers and Favre, so perhaps this is my imagination playing a trick on me.

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NFL Tickets for the Quarterback Craze

There once was a time when quarterbacks only threw for 300 yards in a losing effort because they had to try and cover as much ground as possible quickly. Now, the league demands that quarterbacks be able to surpass the 300 mark just to get a win. Peyton Manning is leading the NFL with 318 passing yards per game and his team is 7-0. In fact, the 10 quarterbacks averaging more than 250 passing yards a game are all on teams with winning records and five of those are on teams that are at least tied for the lead in their division.

Comparatively, of the 12 teams that do not have a quarterback that averages more than 200 yards a game, 11 have losing records and six of those teams reside in last place. This is a development that may have been beaten to death, but is a drastic change in the way football is played. Suddenly, general managers have to take stock in the reality that they need a quarterback and that most great quarterbacks are drafted, not picked up through free agency.

The teams that need protégés are the teams that are going to be drafting the likes of Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, and perhaps Tim Tebow (always be wary of Florida quarterbacks) and will be willing to start them right away. This is a new development, as ESPN’s Len Pasquarelli points out. Through the last 10 drafts 131 quarterbacks have been drafted, with just 26 in the first round. In the entire 10-year spread only eight of those 131 quarterbacks have started opening day. Four of those eight have come within the last two years.

I do not see this as a comment on the increased preparedness of college programs. Sure Boston College may have an NFL-style offense that can prepare a player like Matt Ryan for an immediate impact in the NFL (though I often winder if his career takes the same road if he does not hit Michael Jenkins for a 62-yard touchdown pass right down the seam on his first professional pass from scrimmage), but I see this recent influx of young starters as a signal of the general managers lack of awareness.

The league has been changing the rules for years to better protect the quarterback. They now allow a pansy quarterback slide and anything remotely looking like a real hit on the quarterback is flagged as roughing the passer.

Everyone knew that fans liked touchdowns and the NFL did its best to ensure that the player most capable of delivering a touchdown in less than 10 seconds has its full backing. Now, the league leaders are teams like the New Orleans Saints with Drew Brees and an offense built around his ability to pass to all levels. Same goes for Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts. It is almost more important for the running backs on these teams to have decent hands than the quickness to find the hole between the tackles (in five years Reggie Bush will be the prototypical running back, not Adrian Peterson).

Suddenly, the general managers acceptance of the desert quarterback landscape earlier this century (which was financially motivated I suspect) is biting them in the butt. Heck, even the Chicago Bears finally actually went out and got a gunslinger instead of toting the party line of giving Rex Grossman one more year to prove himself (though this happened after his contract ran out of course).

Pasquarelli points out that owners are in a hurry to see a return on their investment, but I am not sure this is a greater influence than the waves of general managers in football that have simply come late to the party. Change is difficult to accept for people in everyday life, but in the sports realm it seems even more difficult to accept, especially in a professional that recycles so many failed executives.

So look for a few more years of rookie quarterbacks taking the stop behind center right away before the league has enough talent and talent that needs a second chance (after starting too soon) to return to the old days when rookie quarterbacks took a seat on the bench for two seasons.

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NFL Week 7: The Lessons of Feast or Famine

The seventh Sunday of the NFL schedule brought about a bevy of blowouts. Only two games were decided by less than 10 points or less. Four games were decided by a deficit between 10 and 19. An incredible six games were won by more than 20 points. The most lopsided loss was the 38-0 win by the New York Jets over the Oakland Raiders. That game is one of four decided by 30 points or more.

How could this happen to a league that was bathed in a blanket of parity just a couple of years ago? There are plenty of lessons to draw from this lunacy.

Lesson 1:

It is a mistake to fire your offensive coordinator just before the beginning of the season. Apparently in this day and age of complex passing offenses and Wild Cat formation, it takes longer than a week to develop a professional grade offense.

Lesson 2:

Balance is great, but a team must have either a dominant running game or passing game to be anything in this league. The obvious favorite is the pass. It is much easier to complete a 50-yard pass than break for a 50-yard run. Still, of the top ten scoring offenses in the NFL, seven are in the top ten in passing yards a game and only three are in the top ten in rushing yards per game.

Lesson 3:

Greed is good. The New England Patriots drew plenty of ire in Week 6 when they would not stop toying with the Titans defense and scored 59 points. The New York Giants took Eli Manning out of the game in the first half against the Raiders in Week 5’s 44-7 win. Injuries may have been the impetus there, but still the Patriots 5-2 and on their way up in the AFC East while the Giants have just lost their second game in a row and appear to be falling quickly in the NFC East. In a league of disparity, any sign of a conscious is a bad thing.

Lesson 4:

An offensive line is more important than ever. With quarterbacks becoming a bigger part of the offense the offensive lines have to learn to block longer. Without an offensive line a Pro Bowl caliber quarterback can have a miserable game. Perhaps the best example of this is the Bears-Bengals game.

The Cincinnati Bengals destroyed the Chicago Bears 45-10. Palmer and Cutler have proven that they are capable of earning a Pro Bowl nod. Cutler had to throw 37 passes to complete 26 passes to get 251 yards, and most of those passes were under duress. He ended up throwing one touchdown and three interceptions. His quarterback rating was an awful 64.1. Palmer had all the time in the world and played just two quarters before being taken out. Palmer completed 20 of 24 passes for 233 yards and five touchdowns. Palmer’s line handled just about every variation in the defensive front and picked up the blitzes.

The NFL is a new beast in which the best teams need to take heed of Conan the Barbarian and realize what is best in life: “To crush your enemies, to see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentations of their women.”

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Hot Teams Make the Best of MLB Playoff Tickets

The baseball playoffs have begun after the Detroit Tigers self destructed and let the Minnesota Twins win the AL Central. If anything, the very fact that the Tigers bombed so badly proves that there is a reason not to discount even the seemingly most ridiculous statistic, like the magic number in this case. The development also proves something else, that any team that has managed to make it to the MLB postseason has a very real shot if winning it all.

There is a reason the 162-game schedule fits so nicely with the game of baseball. It is because the sport is based on such tiny percentages that it takes that many games to determine which team is actually good and which team is just on a good run. However, the playoffs are quite short in comparison to that regular season, so a good run conquers all in October.

The best recent example of this has to the Boston Red Sox in 2004. The Red Sox were down 3 games to 0 in the ALCS with the New York Yankees and managed to begin an eight-game winning streak that ended with the motley crew holding the Commissioner’s Trophy. Boston sports faithful will claim that the Red Sox had this coming after years of losing to the Yankees, but the reality is that every season is different and this was a team that hit its stride at the right time.

People forget that this was a team that was plagued by injuries, seemed unfocused during much of the season, and could not field. The team made a few midseason trades and managed to turn things around, winning 22 of their final 25 games to blow away the Oakland A’s and Texas Rangers for the Wild Card spot.

After reaching the playoffs and teetering on the brink of elimination in the ALCS they silenced the New York Yankees and unceremoniously swept the St. Louis Cardinals in the World Series.

In fact, a great example of just how much runs matter in the game of baseball we can look at the past few World Series winners. If you listen to the experts, look at how National League players struggle after switching leagues, look at the composite interleague play records, and look at the past results of the last seven MLB All Star games, then you would think the American League team would have won every World Series in the 21st century.

Yet, the Philadelphia Phillies won the World Series in 2008, the St. Louis Cardinals won in 2006, and the Florida Marlins won in 2003. In fact, the National League has won four World Series since 2000.

So, the lesson is not to so quickly discount the Minnesota Twins for their lack of pitching or ignore the Rockies for their lack of home run power or laugh off the Angels because they always seem to blow it in the playoffs after breezing through the MLB season in the AL West.

Every team is dangerous and could end up eliminating the two best teams in baseball, the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, before the league championship series. The great thing is that this makes all MLB playoff tickets worth purchasing until the team is eliminated. The bad thing is that it makes the World Series a crapshoot for the television networks and the MLB front office as they are as concerned with the profit margin as much as they are with the spirit of the game.

Confusing Times in the Age of the Quarterback in the NFL

So, there is little doubt now that this is the age of the quarterback in the NFL. All the announcers are talking about it like it is news, which is akin to your mother “discovering” new rock music. Once she has heard of a band and it is played on her radio station then the novelty of it is over and surely half the globe already knows about it.

Statistically, this is hard to deny. Twenty-one quarterbacks average more than 200 passing yards a game, 10 average more than 250 yards a game, and two average more than 300 yards a game.

Old school football fans may look to the New York Giants, the Tennessee Titans, and the Carolina Panthers as hope for the running game since their two back systems worked last season. This season only the Giants look like a playoff team according to the NFL standings. The Titans and Panthers game plans have been torn to shreds thanks to two suddenly very porous defenses. Two feature back systems do not score points in a hurry. They are only going to put a band aid on a mortal wound, extending their time of possession so the final score will not be as bad as it could be.

Yes, the age of the quarterback is here, but at the same time a new generation of quarterbacks is slowly taking over the position. So I took a look at who is decimating defenses according to the quarterback rating.

To no surprise, the New Orleans Saints Drew Brees and the Indianapolis Colts Peyton Manning are leading the pack with ratings near 120. Little brother Eli Manning is third with a rating of 104.1. After these three names things get weird.

Fourth in the list is the Houston Texans Matt Schaub. Yes, Matt Schaub has a quarterback rating of 101.9. He is followed by the Baltimore Ravens Joe Flacco. Then the list includes the Atlanta Falcons Matt Ryan, the Green Bay Packers Aaron Rodgers, and an aging Brett Favre in Minnesota. The top ten is rounded out by the Washington Redskins Jason Campbell and the Denver Broncos Kyle Orton.

What? How are Schaub, Campbell, and Orton in the top tier of NFL quarterbacks. I thought by now Campbell would be playing football in Europe. I have seen him play and he has a rocket arm and the refined touch of a bazooka.

This may be the age of the quarterback, but does this not mean the quarterback has to be good? That the quarterback has to have the ability to strike with deep 50-yard bombs and slice through defenders to find the tight end on third down for the first down? That they inspire confidence in the men and fans around them?

I know it has only been three games, but should not the statistical boost of Brandon Stokley’s lucky 87-yard “catch” be erased and the game manager known as Orton be sent down the list to the bottom tier. Then again, the Denver Broncos are 3-0 (against pretty awful teams), so once they start to lose (starting this week) Orton should begin that downward, wobbly spiral from Week 4 on.

I expected players like the Dallas Cowboys Tony Romo, the Pittsburgh Steelers Ben Roethlisberger, or the Chicago Bears Jay Cutler up that high. In the age of the quarterbacks I have to assume that players like those with the ability to change the game with an aerial assault and the ability to engineer game-winning 2-minute drives have to end up in that top tier of this confusing statistical category. Players from bad teams need to fall. Luckily it is just three weeks into the season and those players should fall from grace, otherwise it is time to come up with a new way to rank and define the quarterback position.

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MLB Tickets for Second Half Surprises

Everybody knew that the intensity of the MLB after the All Star game would quickly separate the real contenders from the handful of clubs that were going to receive participation trophies at best. It was what happened that has been such a surprise to those of us who do not make a living sitting down, reading all the stats, studying every box score, and enabling a Google alert for every MLB transaction.

Second City Collapse

Way back on July 13th, just after the last few games before the All Star break, Chicago had two teams within a good week of first place. The Chicago White Sox were trailing the Detroit Tigers by 3.5 games in the AL Central. The Chicago Cubs were in third place, by just three games behind the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central.

Now, on September 2, the White Sox have fallen back into third place and are seven games back. The trade for Jake Peavy looks like a move for next year as the team is 1-9 in the last ten games and just sent Jim Thome to the Los Angeles Dodgers and Jose Contreras to the retirement home. The Cubs were never able to really gain traction and dropped to 10.5 games back, staying the course at .500 while the Cardinals have only gotten better and the Milwaukee Brewers have only gotten worse.

The fact that neither one of these teams is going to win the division is not much of a surprise (as opposed to Milton Bradley claiming the fans are racist); however, just how quickly both teams have squandered their chances is. The Cubs technically have a shot at the wild card with 32 games left, but they are 6 games back and would have to leap frog four teams to fight for the right to play the Dodgers (and get summarily swept again).

Red Sox Recoil

The days of the Evil Empire were supposed to be over. The AL East was supposed to be a neck and neck race until the very end of the season, with the loser coming away with the AL wild card. The four game series against the New York Yankees from August 6 to August 9 was supposed to kick off a classic pennant race. The baseball battle royale ended quickly though, with the Boston Red Sox dropping each game. The series 12 days later would simply be a reminder of the devastation as the Yankees took two out of three.

Boston still has postseason hopes thanks to the wild card. The closest competition is the Texas Rangers, who are 3.5 games back. It is the echo effect of losing six out of seven games that must make every Red Sox fan stagger a little bit. The series were not enough to knock the 2004 0-3 ALCS comeback off the mantle, but it will definitely have a place in Bill Simmons next volume of the Now I Can Die in Peace.

The Red Sox could still conceivably catch the Yankees since they are just 6.5 games back, but the Yankees are playing so well it is hard to imagine a 13 game swing going the Red Sox way in the final 33 games of the season (especially with just a three series with the Yankees left). Maybe this could be a set up for another postseason like 2004, but it just does not feel like destiny is in the air this time.

Marlins Magic Gone

Quick, find Steve Bartman and put him in the left field stands near fouls territory. The Florida Marlins rule of six appears to have failed them. The Marlins are in third place in the NL East, trailing the first place Philadelphia Phillies by 9.5 games and the second place Atlanta Braves by two games.

Then again, we all know that the Marlins’ rule of six has never included a division title. Still, Florida remains in fourth place in the Wild Card standings, trailing the first place Colorado Rockies by five games. It appears ass though the wonderful weird world of Marlins baseball may be returning from the rabbit hole and the rules that apply to every other team (must have more runs than your opponents throughout the entire season to win) finally apply to Florida. The Marlins can still win the NL wild card, but a 10 game swing that helps only them is unlikely.

NL “Wild Card” West

Just last season (well, before the Manny Ramirez trade at least) everyone was bemoaning the NL West. The division was perhaps the worst in baseball. Those sentiments did not change over the winter. Only the Los Angeles Dodgers were supposed to be good.

Well, it appears Manny Ramirez is such a force that he can save an entire division. The Colorado Rockies and the San Francisico Giants are the frontrunners for the NL Wild Card. They have no shot at catching the NL leading Dodgers, but are making a strong case for two NL West teams in the postseason. Of the two, the Rockies have to be favorites since they can pitch, hit, and win on the road. The Giants can only win at home and cannot hit well enough to support the second best pitching staff in the National League.

The fact that the division could turn around so fast is a testament to the unpredictability of a sport whose fate is so tied to minor variances in statistics and long standing traditions.

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Quick Hit AFC Season Predictions

The preseason schedule has just started, meaning that its time to get revved up to watch NFL starters play at half speed for a quarter before the scrubs take over until half time, giving way to the future stars of the AFL, USFL, and the rest of the new defacto minor league system of football leagues sloppily missing tackles and looking out of place on the field.

I broke down the season predictions for the NFC last week and need to finish with the AFC before changing my predictions at three intervals, just before the season begins, halfway through the season, and with four weeks left until the playoffs start. I will, of course, quote injuries as the source of my ill-fated analysis. So, let’s take a look at my impressions of the AFC.

AFC East

This division is full of quarterback quandaries. Is Mark Sanchez ready to be a full-time starting NFL quarterback? Is Chad Pennington’s arm going to be a problem after teams adjust to the wild cat formation once again? Is Tom Brady going to be the same player as before the injury and the marriage to Gisele? Will Terrell Owens destroy Trent Edwards’s confidence this season or next season?

First Place: New England Patriots

Tom Brady is said to have an amazing work ethic and the team silently bolstered its skill positions by adding Joey Galloway as the third receiver and Fred Taylor as the second running back. The Pats also replaced an ever-aging Mike Vrabel with a talented young linebacker in Jerod Mayo.

Second Place: Miami Dolphins

The team simply tried to upgrade at receiver and got a player in Pat White they hope can operate the wild cat as a running back and quarterback. This team is pretty solid, though if the wild cat fails to be as effective the offense is looking at an ineffectual passing game with Pennington’s limp noodle of an arm and Greg Camarillo as the best receiver.

Third Place: Buffalo Bills

The Bills have a great receiving tandem with Terrell Owens and Lee Evans, as well as a good running back in Marshawn Lynch. People forget that early in 2008 they looked playoff bound. The addition of Owens and another year of experience for Edwards may be all the Bills need to make a run at the postseason.

Fourth Place: New York Jets

The team tried to build on an awful and underperforming defense from last season and is planning to start a rookie quarterback who is used to the gentle summer breeze in California and not the whirlwind in New Jersey. Things are not going to go well. Then again the front office knew that already, why else do you think they did not actually give Sanchez another starting receiver after losing Laveranues Coles.

AFC North

The AFC North is best won with dominating defense, big play quarterbacks (even when they are supposed to play with a little more control, ahem, Ben Roethlisberger), and good running games.

First Place: Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers kept the stars on offense and defense. They may have lost a few very good role players, but they feel that they addressed the need in the draft or that they can cultivate someone else to take their place. Let’s face it- this team is not going to lose because Byron Leftwich is in Tampa. Plus, Big Ben can go back to being a big play quarterback if his running backs are healthy this season.

Second Place: Baltimore Ravens

Great defense led by Ray Lewis-check Power running game with Willis McGahee and a fullback in Le’Ron McClain that runs like an old school fullback-check Big play quarterback in second year starter Joe Flacco-check. This team could probably win three or four other divisions, but they play in the AFC North and it is too soon to bet against the Steelers.

Third Place: Cincinnati Bengals

The rational is pretty simple. The Bengals have Carson Palmer who can be great if he is healthy and a receiver tandem in Chad Ochocinco and Laveranues Coles that is the second best in the division. Eventually someone has to usurp Cedric Benson at running back and this team is already down on itself, so the Marvin Lewis effect is void.

Fourth Place: Cleveland Browns

Quarterback controversy between overpaid veteran quarterback and unproven first round draft pick- check. Self-destructive wide receiver that ruins team spirit before the first preseason game- check. Terrible defense that tried to improve by signing head cases Oakland Raiders-style – check.

AFC South

The AFC South is place where extremes dominate. Teams have an extremely talented quarterback, an extremely dominant running game, an extremely dreadful defense, or extremely desperate coach. There is no middle ground in this division.

First Place: Indianapolis Colts

The Colts will have a healthy Peyton Manning to begin the season without the “let’s resuscitate Marvin Harrison’s career” project. He has the receivers he needs in Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez, Dallas Clark, and who ever he chooses to make into an All-Pro caliber receiver. The defense simply has to fight off injuries to remain as great as last season. Everything is aligning at the Oil Can.

Second Place: Tennessee Titans

The Titans lost defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth, which will send shock waves that reach the secondary this season as they have to protect against the deep ball that much longer. The team may have two great running backs that force the other team to keep eight in the box, but they also have a troubled former starter who will almost assuredly bring the team down from the inside or start and begin throwing inaccurate interceptions once again.

Third Place: Jacksonville Jaguars

Coach Jack Del Rio needs a good year to keep his job. The team lost quite a few players, but none were irreplaceable. David Garrard still has nobody to throw too, but this season should be exciting as the rebuilt offensive line gets to block for Maurice Jones-Drew, the new without-a-doubt starter.

Fourth Place: Houston Texans

The reigns have been handed to quarterback Matt Schaub and though he still has the best receiver in football in Andre Johnson, he has little else to scare the opposing secondary. Steve Slaton remains the running back too, which is good. Still the defense has been grossly revamped. I get the feeling that big free agent signings defensive linemen Antonio Smith and Shaun Cody are going to be busts that ruin the rest of the season.

AFC West

To finish in first place in this division you simply have to try and aim for mediocrity, which is apparently extremely difficult for this group of teams.

First Place: San Diego Chargers

The loss of linebacker Shawne Merriman to start the season took the wind out the Chargers season early on, as did the suddenly human LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates. Still this team should rebound with a potentially above average defense and an offense that learned how to survive without a dominant LT by the end of last season.

Second Place: Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs made the big move and traded for Matt Cassel. Cassel immediately becomes their best quarterback in years. The Chiefs second pace finish is being made assuming the father time linebacker core is able to squeeze one more good season before everyone ups and retires and assuming Larry Johnson is able to do enough damage taking the ball out of the backfield to give Dwayne Bowe and Mark Clayton (a receiver I continue to believe has big play potential) to get open.

Third Place: Denver Broncos

The defense is still bad, but now they are old too. While the Chiefs are old, they are old in one position in the middle of the field. The Broncos are old in the secondary, so the answer is just go deep. The offense may be moving toward a more conventional running attack with rookie running back Knowshon Moreno and under the direction of rookie head coach Josh McDaniels, but they still have Kyle Orton at quarterback and an increasingly unhappy Brandon Marshall. There is too much going on here for the season to go well, even in the AFC West.

Fourth Place: Oakland Raiders

This team has a strong quarterback with no accuracy, a head coach fearful of being fired and embarrassed nationally by the team owner, a questionable first round pick fighting for the number one receiver role, and a terrible defense. This might be the second team in NFL history to go 0-16.

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NFC Season Predictions Quick Hits

The NFL training camps are underway, so everyone whose baseball team has sunk to the bottom of the division or everyone whose baseball team is obviously on its last leg has a chance to obsess about a new team and dream up scenarios where they might actually put together a Super Bowl season (hey, the Cardinals did it last season so why can’t a club like the Raiders, right?).

Well, not so fast there St. Louis Ram’s diehard and Mr. Kansas City Chief. I do not care what you read about Marc Bulger returning to form or if Tom Cassel still has the scent of the New England Patriots. Read on and see which teams have a shot and which teams should pay more attention to their fantasy football teams, beginning with the NFC in this edition.

NFC East

There is a serious deficiency at wide receiver in this division, so the team with best running game with a big play quarterback probably has the best shot at winning the division as long as they have a good defense.

First Place: New York Giants

The Giants managed to win after Plaxico shot himself in the leg and they still have at least two running backs two dominate games and a pretty good defense. They will not dominate like last season, but they should win amidst the chaos in Dallas and the perpetual plague of doubts in Philadelphia.

Second Place: Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys may not have a great defense and their may be a lot of work to do to repair the relationship between the receivers and the Tony Romo, but there is no more Jessica Simpson in the picture and Terrell Owens took his show to Buffalo. Essentially, there are fewer distractions and Romo has to have a great season to make for last year’s melt down.

Third Place: Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are relying on Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown to give the secondary fits and force the safety to stay out of the box. Yeah. That’s not the best plan. Brian Westbrook is about to turn 30 and he is the most used outlet on passing plays and is the main running back. His injury, or Donovan McNabb’s, will be the crux for the team, whether or not they have a better defense than the Cowboys, where they already have on unhappy customer in starting cornerback Sheldon Brown.

Fourth Place: Washington Redskins

The starting quarterback is Jason Campbell and the back up, Todd Collins, is 37 years old. Santana Moss or not, the second best receiver is Antwaan Randle-El. Clinton Portis can have another great year and it would still not make a difference.

NFC North

The North is the frozen tundra, which is really just a freaking cold desert. Similarly, the football teams here are a fruitless group that will not go far after fighting amongst themselves.

First Place: Minnesota Vikings

The Minnesota Vikings defense will suffer the first four games without Pat and Kevin Williams at defensive tackle, but they will be part of a much improved defense that proves last season was a mirage. On offense the team still has Tavaris Jackson penciled in as the starter, but Sage Rosenfels could overtake him. The receivers are far from great, but running back Adrian Peterson is superb and that is good enough in the North.

Second Place: Green Bay Packers

The Packers had a bad year without Brett Favre and took a step back with the young defense faltering while Aaron Rodgers had a mixed season (lots of yards and touchdowns, too many picks and held on to the ball too long). Still he will have Greg Jennings and a veteran in Donald Driver to throw to while Ryan Grant should help if he is able to play like he did in the second half of last season.

Third Place: Chicago Bears

The defense began to show its age so instead of actually getting new guys that could help that brought in scrubs (safety Josh Bullocks) and coach Lovie Smith said he will revamp that side of the ball personally. Way to try and sweep the problem under the rug. The offense should be better with new quarterback Jay Cutler, Matt Forte entering his second year, and a better offensive line. However, who is going to spread the defense out, no-hands Devin Hester or the guy that could not even beat Brandon Lloyd out for a job last season (Rashied Davis).

Fourth Place: Detroit Lions

You do not get to move up a spot after a 0-16 season and when your projected starting quarterback is a washed up Daunte Culpepper. No way, even if you have Calvin Johnson as the number one option at wide receiver.

NFC South

This division surprised every one when it yielded four teams with a record of 8-8 or better. This division demands that its winner have a balanced team to win.

First Place: Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons only got better when they added tight end Tony Gonzalez to the receiver tandem of Roddy White and Michael Jenkins. Matt Ryan will have his choice of targets and running back Michael Turner will keep opposing defenses off balance.

Second Place: Carolina Panthers

The Carolina Panthers have everything back, the dual running backs (DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart), a defense that allowed 329 points returning 10 starters, and a quarterback the coach loves (Jake Delhoume). There is no other real reason that can be backed with stats or personnel changes, I just think it is time for Atlanta to put together a string of good seasons..

Third Place: New Orleans Saints

The defense will have some issues without defensive ends Will Smith and Charles Grant for the first four games, but the early season is crazy and teams can pull out victories they cannot later in the season, especially with Drew Brees as the quarterback. I am pretty sure Brees could score 20 points a game in the NFL with a bunch of high school players, only he has wide receiver Marquis Colston and running back Reggie Bush to work with.

Fourth Place: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Tampa Bay Bucs lost their identity when they did not return Derrick Brooks, Joey Galloway, Jeff Garcia, and Warrick Dunn. It is going to take half the season just to figure out who this team is. Then they will have to wonder why Byron Leftwich is under center.

NFC West

The NFC North is happy that the NFC West exists because they make their teams look like Super Bowl contenders. The one exception was the Arizona Cardinals, and they remain the only exception.

First Place: Arizona Cardinals

Sure the Super Bowl loser typically dive bombs the next season, but if Kurt Warner gets to keep throwing to Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston they can postpone that nose dive until the playoffs. Keep in mind that the Cards had to know they did not belong in the Super Bowl and they still put up an amazing fourth quarter with a much improved postseason defense.

Second Place: Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks are getting Matt Hasselback back and surrounding him with decent receivers like T.J. Houshmandzadh, Nate Burleson, Deion Branch, Deion Butler, and John Carlson. Hasselback should be able to put up pretty good numbers with this crew. The defense is supposed to bounce back with Patrick Kerney. I doubt his return will make the team a Top 10 defensive club, but they will be better than the Rams and 49ers.

Third Place: St. Louis Rams

The offensive line continues to improve piece by piece, which will give running back Stephen Jackson some holes to run through and quarterback Marc Bulger time to complete a three step drop and hit somebody (though the somebody is, is not clear yet).

Fourth Place: San Francisco 49ers

Mike Singletary is changing the defense from a 4-3 to a 3-4 and there is a quarterback battle in camp… the bell tolls for thee.

NFL Tickets

MLB Hall of Fame Pitchers

After Mark Buerhle became just the 18th player to throw a perfect game I began to wonder if that feat would make him a lock for the Hall of Fame. After setting the record for consecutive outs on Tuesday at 45 I asked myself the same thing. Now I am wondering who else among his peers is going to be considered in the Hall of Fame debate.

His peers do not include guys like Randy Johnson, but pitchers around the age of 30, let’s say between the ages of 28 and 32. These guys have had enough experience to dismiss any fluke seasons and have come up in the age of the 100-pitch limit, as noted by ESPN columnist Tim Kurkjian. These are the guys that are going to be competing for votes on the same Hall of Fame ballots in a decade or so.

The Chicago Wonders

Mark Buerhle, Chicago White Sox

Age: 30, Throws: Left

Pros:

As stated before, Buerhle is one of a handful of pitchers to throw a perfect game and currently holds the record for most consecutive outs at 45. He also has threw a no hitter on April 18, 2007; has quietly amassed 133 wins in nine seasons; has led the AL in innings pitched twice (2004 and 2005); has been on the All Star team four times; and was the ace on a World Series champion (2005 White Sox).

Cons:

Buerhle is a control pitcher so while he has a pretty good K:BB ratio, far more balls are hit into play. Later in his career, this may cost him some wins and inflate his ERA. This is important because despite his notable career and accomplishments (apart from the recent exploits), these accomplishments have been in minor categories. Also, he plays for the second team in a market far away from the coasts. His is often a forgotten guy on the national scene, meaning he probably needs to win at least 250 games to be considered for Cooperstown and 300 to be a lock.

Carlos Zambrano, Chicago Cubs

Age: 28, Throws: Right

Pros:

Zambrano has a no hitter under his belt (September 14, 2008), played on three All Star teams, led the NL in wins once (2006), has two Silver Slugger awards (2006 and 2008), and has a great nickname (Big Z). He has surpassed 20 innings five times (2003-2007) and has had 3 15-plus win seasons (2004, 2006, and 2007). He also plays for a big market team that is quite popularly always very close to breaking a century old curse.

Cons:

Zambrano throws hard and he may be throwing himself out of the league. Last season he missed time with dead arm and this season is on pace to miss the 200 inning mark for the second year in a row. The other issue is his control. His career K:BB ratio is 1:89:1. These do project well for his longevity in the MLB. He has also expressed interest in retiring at the end of his current contract. He ha the money, so there is no reason for him not to, but he will need another solid decade to even warrant Hall of Fame considerations.

The Cy Young Winners

Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays

Age: 32, Throws: Right

Pros:

Halladay is a six time All Star with a Cy Young Award and is highly coveted every season around the trade deadline. He also has 142 wins in 11 seasons (including two 20-win seasons), is an innings eater (pitched more than 200 in five seasons), and is a strike out pitcher (struck out over 200 in two seasons). He has four seasons with an ERA below 3.00 and three more with an ERA near three.

Cons:

He split time in his first two years in the majors, costing him around 30 starts. This is nothing major, but there is very little to criticize about him. The only other major knock on him is that he has pitched in pitcher-friendly ballparks as a Toronto Blue Jays, helping his numbers. Obviously he has to finish out his career without dive bombing once he leaves via free agency or trade. Otherwise, he is a pretty sure thing.

Johan Santana, New York Mets

Age: 30, Throws: Left

Pros:

Santana has won the AL Cy Young award twice (2004 and 2006), played on four All Star teams, won a Golden Glove (2007), led the AL in wins once (2006), led the AL in strikeouts in three consecutive years (2004-2006), led the AL in ERA twice (2004 and 2006), and led the NL in ERA once (2008). He is the rare power southpaw and has 120 wins in nine seasons and his career ERA is a remarkable 3.12. He also managed to eclipse 200 strikeouts every year from 2004 to 2008 and surpass 200 innings in those same years.

Cons:

He has a habit of giving up the long ball, giving up 20 or more home runs from 2004 to 2008 (giving up a whopping 33 in 2007). Right now people are sure to note that he is pitching in the National League, which is considered the lesser of the two leagues right now.

Cliff Lee, Cleveland Indians

Age: 30, Throws: Left

Pros:

Lee has an AL Cy Young Award (2008) and an All Star selection. He has pretty good control (2.56 K: BB ratio for his career) and has pitched more than 200 innings in a season three times (2005, 2006, and 2008).

Cons:

Lee only has 83 career wins in seven seasons. He might have more with a different team but his career ERA has fluctuated from a mark as high as 6.29 to as low as 2.54. The AL Comeback Player of the year in 2008 is not exactly something that speaks well of his career as a whole, indicating that he was once a terrible pitcher. He will need A career in his 30s and 40s like Randy Johnson to make the ballot.

C.C. Sabathia, New York Yankees

Age: 29, Throws: Left

Pros:

Sabathia won the AL Cy Young in 2007, has made three All Star teams, and led the AL in innings pitched in 2007. He also has pitched more than 200 innings three times in his career, pitched more than 190 three times, and has 127 wins in eight seasons. He has also been regarded as one of the top pitchers in the last few seasons, which means a lot for nostalgia. Playing the Yankees is a definite plus as well. Having the stamp of approval from a team that is wildly popular and a consistent contender is never a bad thing.

Cons:

Sabathia has to pitch in a hitters dream. This could slaughter his career ERA and where him down mentally. Also, Sabathia is not exactly a svelte athlete. Right now he is listed as 290 pounds, but could be over 300 pretty easily. As a pitcher this means even more strain on all those joints and ligaments necessary to throw to the plate. It appears from his innings numbers over his career that his body is already an issue, keeping him from eclipsing the 200 inning mark. He is young now, so if he changes his dietary ways he could slim down and keep his career going, all the while remaining in the discussion of the best pitchers in baseball.

Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres

Age: 28, Throws: Right

Pros:

Peavy won the NL Cy Young award in 2007, is a two-time All Star, led the NL in ERA twice (2004 and 2007), and led the NL in strikeouts once (2007). He also has fours seasons with an ERA under 3.00 (2004, 2005, 2007, and 2008), three seasons with more than 200 innings pitched (2005-2007), he has had three seasons with 200 plus strike outs (2005-2007), he has a career 3.09:1 K:BB ratio, and he has 92 wins in seven seasons. He is also among the most highly regarded pitchers in baseball.

Cons:

Peavy has too many wasted quality starts because he plays for the San Diego Padres, but since he will be shipped soon that should no longer be an issue. He also has pitched in a pitchers park at PETCO Park. People have to wonder will have to hold if he pitches in less friendly confines. The fact that he commonly misses a few starts every season in his 20s is kind of a red flag. Will his health deteriorate rapidly in the years to come in his 30s?

Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamondbacks

Age: 30, Throws: Right

Pros:

Webb won the NL Cy Young award in 2006, is a three time All Star, has led the NL in wins twice (2006 and 2008), and has led the NL in innings pitched once (2007). He also has a career ERA of 3.27 (he has never had a full season an ERA above 3.59), he has had five consecutive seasons with at least 200 innings pitched (2004-2008, he is injured this season), he has five consecutive 30-plus start seasons (2004-2008), and he has a career K: BB ratio of 2.44:1.

Cons:

There are not many cons for Webb. He only has 87 career wins at the age of 30, but that is also only with six full seasons. He started late, but he has been making jumps in his win totals over the last three healthy seasons. The future looks bright, assuming he comes back fully recovered next season.

The Overlooked

Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox

Age: 29, Throws: Right

Pros:

Beckett has been a World Series champion twice (2003 and 2007), a World Series MVP once (2003), an ALCS MVP once (2007), and a two time All Star selection. He also has 101 wins in eight seasons, has two seasons with more than 200 innings pitched (2006 and 2007), has a 20-win season (2007), has a career ERA of 3.74, has a career K:BB ratio of 3.08:1, and has a 7-2 record with a 2.90 ERA in the postseason in 12 starts. He also plays for the Red Sox, giving him the media exposure to grow his reputation.

Cons:

Beckett’s ERA has jumped drastically season to season since joining the Red Sox. Despite his good numbers he does not have the recognition of several other players on this list. He seems like one of those players that will not receive recognition until his late 30s. There is no real proof of that, but that is simply the vibe that I get.

Roy Oswalt, Houston Astros

Age: 31, Throws: Right

Pros:

Oswalt is a little short on accolades. He is a three time All Star selection, was the NLCS MVP in 2005, and was on the gold medal team in the 200 Sydney Olympics. Stats wise, he has a 3.17 career ERA, has four seasons with an ERA below 3.00 (and never has had a season ERA above 3.54), has 135 wins in eight seasons, has been a 20-game winner twice (2004 and 2005), has eclipsed 200 strikeouts in a season twice (2002 and 2004), has a career K:BB ratio of 3.58, has five consecutive seasons with 30 plus starts and 200 plus innings pitched (2004-2008), has 18 career complete games, and has six career shutouts.

Cons:

Oswalt plays in Houston. The team is always kind of competitive, but nobody recognizes them. The team last made the playoffs in 2005 and has not been back since. He really has had a spectacular career, but has simply been forgotten since the early career buzz. He needs to keep doing what he is doing and someday he will get his recognition, though probably when he ends up on the Yankees.

Final Thoughts

Of the 237 players in the Hall of Fame 59 are pitchers. This means nearly one in four inductees has taken the mound. I expect that after the sluggers from the late ‘90s and early 21st century are in you will see a number of these pitchers on the ballot. Of course, all will not make into the hall, but I could easily see five of these guys getting in.

Will Buerhle be one of them? I do not know, but if he does not then I imagine he will become the sob story to replace Ron Santo’s failure to join his teammates Ernie Banks, Ferguson Jenkins, and Billy Williams.

MLB Tickets

MLB Players and their Quests for Conquests

The major league baseball season is a long one. At 162 games it dwarfs the NFL (16 games), NBA (82 games), and the NHL (82 games). Sure that gives fans plenty of chances to sit in the bleachers and enjoy a lazy summer afternoon with a hotdog and a few beers (and then subsequently spend the next month staying in on the weekends waiting for the ban account to heal), but the long season also makes pleasantly surprising statistics anomalies in the long run.

This means that all those players we looked upon with wonder as they approached some record and were putting together impressive seasons fall back to earth shattering our midseason expectations, which is fitting when you consider how many fans hopes for their team are painfully beaten down as well. The question, then, is will these players that follow be able to beat the odds and actually keep up with there midseason form.

Albert Pujols, St Louis Cardinals

Albert Pujols is in the running for the Triple Crown in the National League. He is leading the league in home runs (34), RBI (90), and is second in batting average (.333, 12 points behind Hanley Ramirez. Pujols homerun lead is currently 10, so I really do not see him have much of a problem maintaining his powerful swing. In fact, I do not see him having a problem keeping any of his key stats up where they are now. He is playing for a team that is in the midst of a pennant race. His Cardinals are trying to fend off a Brewers team that does not realize they are that good and a Chicago Cubs team that is slowly beginning to realize they have an incredible pitching staff and a pretty good lineup (at least any other year).

I suppose the real question is the players that are competing for the lead in the same categories will be able to spoil his shot at becoming the first Triple Crown winner in the NL since Joe Medwick in 1937. Prince Fielder is the only player even close to Pujols in the RBI category with 83. Fielder will need his guys to continue drawing walks (the Brewers cannot hit, yet draw the fourth most walks in the NL) to give him a chance to catch and surpass Pujols.

The other player who could ruin Pujols quest is Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez, the shortstop for the Marlins is hitting .345 and simply needs to continue his incredible season. The reality is that Ramirez, though only 25, already has a season under his belt where he hit .332 and he has hit .370 in June and the only reason his average is so low is that he had a miserable April (he hit .289). Ramirez has the career history and has been tearing up pitchers since his average start, meaning Pujols will need to bump his average to try and catch Ramirez, which only makes his job harder. I do not see Pujols winning the Triple Crown, but do see him accepting the NL MVP in the fall.

Zach Grienke, Kansas City Royals

Zach Grienke is having a Cy Young worthy season with a 2.08 ERA, 10 wins, and 136 strikeout after the All Star break. The question is whether he will be able to keep up the incredible performance in the mound despite the Royals terrible play.

Luckily as a pitcher the job is almost separate from the team. The position players have to go out every day and face their losing ways. Grienke only has to come out every five or six days and try and throw another incredible game. Yes, he still will feel the dread in the locker room, but he can compartmentalize his duty from the rest of the team and the season (he may be kicking himself for signing that four year extension in January though).

Grienke is on the path to having a career low in ERA and a career high in wins, which means he is entering new territory as a player. This could be a major hurdle once he truly realizes what he is doing. Then again, he is a professional athlete, so this is what he lives for. Something that unequivocally falls in his favor is that he has only allowed more than three runs in an outing twice. If his team can manage to keep up with their 3.89 run average then that means that his 10 wins should be more than 15 and possibly near 20 by the end of the season.

I think he will maintain his Cy Young numbers and that his teammates will eventually play inspired ball during his starts since they are bound to realize he is their only positive point this season. The team started out hot, but fell back into familiar trenches at the bottom of the AL Central. They just need to understand that Grienke’s season may be the only thing to build around. Maybe Zach will be kind enough to bring the Cy Yong Award around the locker room to let his teammates know he is thankful for their effort.

Jason Marquis, Colorado Rockies

Jason Marquis is a starting pitcher for the Rockies, a fact that elicits sympathy. However, he is amazingly leading the NL and MLB in wins. He has 12 wins despite playing half his games in Coors Field. He is also sporting a 3.49 ERA along with a 1.26 WHIP. The stats get even weirder. He has a 3.80 ERA at home and is averaging more than six innings a start in the thin mountain air.

Can Jason Marquis actually end the season the league wins leader? If you look at his month by month you will see that his stats actually improve. His ERA goes down with each month. The bad news is that he is not a strike out pitcher. Marquis has just 61 strikeouts in 131.1 innings pitched. That means a whole lot more balls are in lay over the course of the game, which is why he allows his opponents to bat .250, which is rather unimpressive from the pitchers side.

Another confounding couple of stats is that Marquis has only allowed nine home runs, but has allowed 181 total bases. This means that gives up few home runs, but many extra base hits. This is a bad combination.

Then there is another layer of unforeseen intricacy to the question, the Rockies play in the NL West. The only team any pitcher has to fear in the division is the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Rockies will play other teams as well, but most of their games, and thus likely many of Marquis’s starts, will be against his own division. So, despite the relative ease with which hitters are abusing Marquis, he may not have to face too many teams that can punish him. Overall, I return to my introduction and the statement about statistical anomalies. Eventually the thin air will leave Marquis too tired or give the balls too much lift, thwarting his campaign to lead the league in wins.

Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins

Joe Mauer missed the first month of the baseball season, but returned on fire. He leads the American League in on base percentage, slugging percentage, and is closing in on Ichiro Suzuki for the batting average title. He also leads his catchers in the AL with 15 home runs. Will Mauer be able to keep up this incredible culmination of patience, power, and contact at the plate?

Historically this is not too much of a stretch for Mauer. In 2006 he batted .347 and last season he hit .328. In both seasons he won the batting titles. This surge of power (and thus increase in slugging percentage) is a new thing. Mauer claims he has always had the potential for power and his teammates have joked that once he grew into his body the rest of the league better watch out. Apparently they were correct.

I see Mauer keeping up his performance. I think that since he missed winter ball and spring training he will have less wear and tear on his body come later in the season. I do not see Twins skipper Ron Gardenhire having any issue moving Mauer to DH for a few games so he can bounce back from the physical demand of playing catcher. If the Twins are able to make a run for the AL Central title I could even see Mauer winning the AL MVP.

There are plenty of other stories to contemplate (can Ichiro win the batting title again, can Prince Fielder maintain a .300 average, can Dan Haren keep his ERA under 2.00, etc), but I think these are the most compelling questions as the rest of our collective sports consciousness moves onto the divisional races and we wonder if the New York Yankees can catch the Boston Red Sox or if the Tampa Bay Rays can put together a surge or if the Philadelphia Phillies can conquer the NL East while the New York Mets continue playing on life support.

MLB Tickets

First Half All-MLB Team

Tuesday night the American League won the All Star game for the twelfth time in a row, defeating the National League 4-3. The best players from both leagues squared off in a rather short contest (2 hours and 30 minutes) instead of a marathon like last season (which went 15 innings).

Now that this annual contest is over and the American League again has home field advantage in the World Series the real season begins, with teams looking for a pennant and players looking for individual honors. There will be two MVPs, two Cy Young winners, and two Gold Glove first basemen. There will be two of everything because MLB, unlike the NFL and NBA do not announce an all MLB team.

I find this kind of odd. Is this because at any one time the gulf between the leagues can make one of the leagues (currently the National League) look like a fourth level of the minor league system? Is it because the stats are not comparable because of the designated hitter? Is it because the leagues in baseball are so much more separate than in any other sport (interleague play only lasts 18 games a year at most)?

Well, I am ending the ridiculousness right here. I have come up with the First Half All-MLB team with a starter at every position, a starting rotation, and a closer.

Catcher

Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins

.373 BA, 15 HR, 49 RBI, 49 R, .447 OBP, .622 SLG

Joe Mauer missed the first month of the season and still has the most homeruns for his position. He also has the highest batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. He is an offensive force that could very well end up with the AL MVP if the Twins are able to put together a second half surge and win the AL Central.

He is not bad on defense either. He has thrown out 30.0 percent of runners since returning and has a fielding percentage of .994. None of his defensive numbers qualify when comparing to the other starting catchers in the league because he only has 48 games behind the plate. If they did qualify he would be among the top tier of catchers.

First Base

Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals

.332 BA, 32 HR, 87 RBI, 73 R, .456 OBP, .723 SLG

Even American League pundits cannot deny that these numbers are incredible. If you adjusted somehow to account for the difference in overall quality of pitchers in the

National League (that is to say, to account for how much worse they are than their American League counterparts) I think his numbers would still hold up. Those numbers, across the board, are the best among first basemen. It is incredible, really.

I do not normally count defense when it comes to first base, so I will discount his six errors, sub par fielding percentage. However one could argue that his errors come from a greater range. Either way, he is too great a force to ignore at first base.

Second Base

Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies

.313 BA, 20 HR, 61 RBI, 62 R, .430 OBP, 573 SLG

Chase Utley almost became the third Philadelphia Phillies player in a row to win the NL MVP last season, and though he is not going to win it this year (Albert Pujols is), he is putting together another terrific season. He is second in batting for his position and I think he would bee able to maintain an average over .300 after hitting exactly .300 against the AL East in interleague play. He has power and has a good eye at the plate.

He is also an average fielder, ranking 10th among MLB starting second basemen in fielding percentage (.986) and tying for seventh for range factor (5.03). He gives a team solid defense and above average power at the plate as well as a great eye at the plate. He beats out Ben Zorbist, Robinson Cano, and last year’s AL MVP Dustin Pedroia in my opinion.

Third Base

Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants

.333 BA, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 41 R, .385 OBP, .578 SLG

This pick surprised me. Sure he plays in one of the worst divisions in baseball and he hits against lesser pitchers in the National League, but he is batting nine points better than the next best hitting third baseman and 13 points better than the best hitting third baseman from the AL. Basically, baseball is game of minuscule differences in stats, so nine points and 13 points loom large in comparison.

Sandoval also has some power and can get batters in, hitting .382 with runners on and .313 with runners in scoring position. These numbers compare very well with the regular starters. He is a so-so fielder with average fielding stats, but his power and his numbers, considering that he has absolutely no protection in the Giants lineup, are quite impressive.

Shortstop

Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins

.349 BA, 14 HR, 61 RBI, 53 R, 13 SB, .411 OBP, .567 SLG

Remember when shortstop was the new power position? Then again that conspicuously aligned with the steroid era, thanks A-Rod. Well, now shortstops are hitting like they are historically meant to and the best hitting shortstop this season has been Hanley Ramirez, a player that is single-handedly standing between Pujols and the NL Triple Crown.

Ramirez is leading the National League in hitting and has 20 points on the next batter, as well as 28 points on the closest AL shortstop. He has some power, better than every shortstop but one (Troy Tulowitzki), and is killing the rest of the shortstops in on base percentage and slugging percentage.

His defense is a little questionable, with good discipline in his range, which seems to be a little more limited than some of the other stars at this position. If it was not for his incredible batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage Derek Jeter would be here. Alas, decent fielding and amazing offense trump great defense and simply very good offensive numbers.

Left Field

Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Rays

.309 BA, 8 HR, 39 RBI, 58 R, 44 SB, .367 OBP, .439 SLG

Carl Crawford is coming off an All Star game MVP and rightfully has earned a place on the All-MLB team to this point. He is a very good hitter landing in the top ten for batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage for his position. He is also the best runner on the base paths.

I was tempted to put Raul Ibanez, but his complete lack of range in even left field was the deciding factor. Crawford can cover the field and torment pitchers with just a step or two off first base. He is the leadoff hitter from hell for pitchers that can get on base and steal second and third before the number two hitter is finished.

Center Field

Carlos Beltran, New York Mets

.336 BA, 8 HR, 40 RBI, 40 R, .11 SB, 425 OBP, 527 SLG

This position was perhaps the hardest to decide yet. There are a few power hitters and a bevy of speedsters. I imagined a team with Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury giving catchers night terrors the night before, but Beltran, despite the injury, has simply been far too effective at getting on base.

Beltran is hitting .336, 16 points better then the next best centerfielder and 31 points better than the best hitting AL centerfielder. He gets on base an incredible 42.5 percent of the time, and has a .527 slugging percentage. The numbers are simply to overwhelming to ignore in the name of blazing speed.

He is definitely not on the same level of fielding as those speed guys in the outfield, but the can get the job done. Considering the number of runs he can help produce, I will take a slightly sub par centerfielder.

Right Field

Brad Hawpe, Colorado Rockies

.320 BA, 14 HR, 59 RBI, 50 R, .396 OBP, .577 SLG

Many people would question the decision to not choose Ichiro Suzuki here, but if you look past his incredible .362 batting average you’ll see that he adds painfully little. His on base percentage is actually only fourth despite have the best batting average in the league and his hits are mostly singles which make them the equivalent to walks. If you argue that singles can advance a runner two bases I have to say you are correct. However, his batting average with runners on is only good for 13th among everyday right fielders and his average with runners in scoring position is only good for 19th.

Brad Hawpe was a difficult choice, but I am confident that even if you account a slight jump in average because of playing in the National League and Coors Field, his numbers are still pretty impressive.

Hawpe has the second best batting average, third best on base percentage, the best slugging percentage, the most RBI, the sixth most runs scored, and ht eighth most home runs for his position. He is not a stud in right field, but he covers enough ground and is consistent enough to be a decent right fielder.

Starting Pitcher

Zach Greinke, Kansas City Royals

10-5, 2.12 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 9.12 K/9, 7.07 Innings/Start, 5 CG, 2 SHO

On a team with a half decent offense he would conceivably be 13-2 since he had two games where he allowed more than three runs. Unfortunately, he plays for the Royals and they rank near last in every significant offensive category.

Dan Haren of the Arizona Diamondbacks may have a better ERA and Tim Lincecum of the San Francisco Giants may have more strikeouts, but both those players play against hitters that are not on par overall with the American League. When picking position players the difference could be glossed over a little bit, but with pitching the difference is not something that can be ignored.

Greinke has a more than solid strikeouts per nine innings rate, has a great WHIP, and has the stamina and control to average seven innings a start. He is the front runner for the AL Cy Young and is the obvious choice for the starting pitcher on an All-MLB team.

Closer

Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins

23 Saves, 2 Blown Saves, 34.1 IP, 43 SO, 1.90 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 11.27 K/9, 6.14 K/BB

I threw a lot of stats out there, but the point is that Nathan is a solid closer that rarely allows a run, much less a hit, and has enough control to average a high strike out rate while keeping his walks way down. Basically, he has control and power, the two things you want out of a closer.

Mariano Rivera of the New York Yankees may only have one blown save, but he also has an ERA of 2.43. Brian Fuentes of the Los Angeles Angels may have 26 saves, but he has had more chances, blown three of them, and has an ERA of 3.23. In the end, Nathan’s numbers are just too convincing.

MLB Tickets

The Tampa Bay Rays: A Baseball Diagnosis

This team has the third best batting average in the league. This team has the second best on base percentage and slugging percentage in the league. This team has scored the most runs and has stolen the most bases in the league. This team averages more than a run more than their opponents. This team is leading the division with an absurd win-loss record, right? Wrong. This team is hovering around .500 and is in fourth place in the American League East. This is team is the Tampa Bay Rays.

Somehow the Rays, who have the AL homerun leader (Carlos Pena), MLB stolen base leader (Carl Crawford), and five starting position players batting over .300, are failing to capitalize with a +72 run differentiation. For those who do not know, the run differentiation is simply the runs scored minus the runs allowed. This is perhaps a more telling stat than ERA since the unearned runs are included, not letting the pitcher or the defense on the field off the hook.

Only two other teams have close to that level of run differentiation, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Boston Red Sox. The Los Angeles Dodgers have a run differentiation of +82 and enjoy a record of 44-23 and a nine game lead on the next closest team in the NL West. The Boston Red Sox have a run differentiation of +65 and lead the AL East.

The Rays should be right up there with the Red Sox, the Dodgers, and even the second place New York Yankees in their own division. The first thing I wondered about was whether the high run production was a statistical holdover from a series of 10 strong games and was simply throwing off the more indiciative numbres or whether the team could either score in double digits or not at all. A look at the Rays schedule showed me that the team regularly scores runs in bunches and that there was not a strong feast or famine pattern.

Next I looked at the pitching, since I noticed that the team ERA was good for eighth in the AL at 4.29 but the club only had 28 quality starts. Sure enough, something jumped out at me.

Within the five-man starting rotation two pitchers have an ERA well below the team average. James Shields and Matt Garza each have an ERA below 4.00 (3.52 and 3.83 respectively) and they accounted for 16 of the 28 quality starts. Starter Jeff Niemann has an ERA near the team average with an ERA of 4.21 and only has four quality starts. The two remaining starting pitchers, Andy Sonnanstine and Scott Kazmir both have incredibly high ERAs (6.65 and 7.69 respectively).

The bullpen is equally polarized. Randy Choate, J.P. Howell, and Lance Cormier are relievers with an ERA below 2.04. Jeff Nelson, Dan Wheeler, and Grant Balfour have an ERA over 4.50.

The picture got a little more difficult to understand when I looked at the records. Shields, Garza, and Niemann have a combined record of 15-14 with no single pitcher accounting for more than six wins despite the superior performances on the mound. Menawhile, Sonnanstine and Kazmir are 9-10 when they should actually be closer to 3-16.

It seems that there are equal parts good and bad on this pitching staff, meaning that even if the Rays can score 5.7 runs a game it may not be enough for a combined effort of a starter and the bullpen to still not blow the game. The numbers still seem eradic though, and much more like a statistical aberration that will correct itself over the course of a 162-game season.

Still it helps that David Price seems to have regained control over his pitching location since coming back from AAA Durham after Kazmir was put on the DL. If he can pitch half-way decently, then the Rays should turn more of those would be wins into actual wins and close the six game lead between the Rays and the first place Red Sox.

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MLB Season Suprises

A third of the MLB season has passed and the early season surprises have subsided. The Toronto Blue Jays unceremoniously fell from first place in the AL East after losing nine straight in the final two weeks of May. The Pittsburgh Pirates pitching staff, other than Zack Duke, fell apart and the general manager quickly disappointed fans by trading Nate McLouth, firmly reestablishing the keen sense of doubt and depression at PNC Park. Plenty more inflated individual stats on every team deflated as the law of averages finally won again. Still, some surprises have remained, lingering, threatening to go from an early season trend to one of the dominant storylines of the year.

The National League Central

The Chicago Cubs were supposed to run away with the National League Central for the third year in a row. The Milwaukee Brewers were supposed to be crippled by the loss of pitcher C.C. Sabathia to the New York Yankees and the loss of pitcher Ben Sheets to free agency and an elbow injury. The St. Louis Cardinals were supposed to finally fully embrace the idea of rebuilding.

Well, right now the Chicago Cubs are in third place, struggling to find their high-priced offense, which currently ranks 13th in the National League in runs scored. The Brewers are on top of the division with an explosive offense, a decent starting rotation, and an excellent bullpen. The Cardinals are hanging close thanks to another MVP-type season by Albert Pujos and pretty solid pitching staff. The Cincinnati Reds are competing as well thanks to pitching and the Pittsburgh Pirates only recently traded their way out of finishing the season at or above .500 for the first time in 16 seasons.

There is still time for the Central to realign itself and chances are it will come down to a battle between the Cubs and the Brewers again this season, but the rest of the summer will remain entertaining in the NL Central, which has suddenly become one of the most competitive divisions in baseball.

The Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers were riding the bat of Manny Ramirez until May 7th, when he began his 50-game suspension for apparently trying to ward off menopause. The team was 21-8 and everyone expected the Dodgers to perform like they did in 2008 before trading for Manny, suddenly giving the Giants and whoever else felt like scoring runs in the National League West a chance to catch up.

Well, Los Angeles has gone 18-12 without the star slugger thanks to incredible pitching despite losing staff ace Hiroki Kurado on opening day and scoring runs with small ball. The Dodgers have the best ERA, highest average, and the most runs scored in the National League. It appears that while Ramirez’s personality can linger like the plague in a locker room when he is unhappy, a happy Manny can have an equally positive lasting effect on a lineup that struggled to hit better than a Triple A ball club last season with much the same roster.

Tampa Bay Rays

Nobody was sure what to expect from the Tampa Bay Rays this season. Last season might have been a breakout season or an anomaly. Nobody was sure if the offense was going to remain as potent or if the pitching was going to remain as solid as in 2008.

Turns out the offense would remain among the best in baseball and the pitching would remain solid in the American League. It turns out that the Rays can not turn those impressive stats, most notably a run differential of +49, into wins. The Rays are 29-29 and trailing the New York Yankees, the Boston Red Sox, and the Toronto Blue Jays despite averaging .8 runs more a game than their opponents.

In baseball, .8 runs is a huge number, the second best in MLB in fact. While it is surprising to see the Rays struggling despite having the numbers on their side, it seems pretty obvious that over the long season they should eventually jump a few spots in the standings and validate their overall solid all around performance.

Raul Ibanez

This summer the Philadelphia Phillies signed Raul Ibanez to a three-year $31.5 million contract. Many baseball experts were concerned that the Phillies front office had gone rabid after winning the World Series. Ibanez came into the season 36 years old with waning power numbers after an unappreciated career with the Seattle Mariners. To give him $10 a season to replace Pat Burrell, a poor fielder and strike out machine at the plate, seemed like an overreaction.

Turns out there is a reason the Phillies front office put together a championship team and I am just writing about baseball as a fan. Ibanez has to the early leader for the National League MVP with a .329 average, 19 home runs, 54 RBI, and 46 runs. He is on pace to set career highs in just about every statistical category.

If you look at Ibanez’s career stats in hindsight you will note that he had no protection in Seattle and that in Philly he has Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jayson Werth, and Shane Victorino so whether Ibanez is hitting third, fourth or fifth he is likely to see a pitcher worried about the next batter or a pitcher fatigued after getting through the front of the most dangerous lineup in the National League.

The Release of Tom Glavine

The Atlanta Braves were stuck somewhere between rebuilding and competing in the National League after signing Derek Lowe and trading for Javier Vazquez over the winter. The fans did not know what to expect, with a team that spent money on pitching but not hitting. They only knew that they were at least going to get to watch Tom Glavine finish his days in MLB as a member of the Braves, the team that the 300-game winner and future Hall of Fame pitcher came up with.

Then last week the Braves released Glavine, stating that he simply was not going to be able to compete at a major league level. The conspiracy spin is that the Braves front office, who just traded for Nate McLouth, was trying to avoid paying Glavine his $1 million dollar bonus for making the MLB roster. The Braves fans are upset, the wide spectrum of fans are upset, and Glavine is upset. The Associated Press reported today that Glavine may file a grievance against the team.

The official line from the general manager Frank Wren is really quite ludicrous. The line is that the team was not sure if Glavine would be able to handle the hitters after surgery on his elbow and shoulder.

Glavine was brought back for the same reason as Ken Griffey Jr. in Seattle, to appease the fans. Griffey was brought back because the Mariners fans are getting sick of losing and Glavine was coming back because he could soften the blow as Braves fans adjusted to the fact their team was no longer to be competitive after the 2008 season. Then, suddenly the Braves had a chance to compete and they dropped the sappy season storyline to bring in a very good center fielder for the future. It may have been a solid move for the team talent-wise, but it was a disaster and a surprise public relations-wise.

The season is only a third of the way done, so whether these teams are able to keep up the surprising or confounding floundering play is anything but set in stone, whether Ibanez will win the MVP at the age of 37 is still a mystery, and whether there will be anymore surprise player moves is still up in the air as the baseball season soap opera continues.

MLB Tickets

LeBron James: The Loss That Led to Greatness

I like everyone else was excited by the possibility of watching the Los Angeles Lakers and the Cleveland Cavaliers play in the NBA Finals. I relished the thought of watching LeBron James and Kobe Bryant do battle, I wanted to believe that this would be the passing of the torch from one MVP to another, and I wanted to see two players who were unstoppable defile the other team at will as the competitive stakes were raised. That reality is no more, the series will remain a hypothetical one, but I have just glimpsed into the future and seen something far more interesting, the transformation of the gentle giant into the beast whose hunger will devour all in his path.

No, I am not talking about Dwight Howard and the Orlando Magic and how they actually have a shot to beat the Lakers thanks to the soft interior defense that was their undoing last season in the NBA Finals against the Boston Celtics. I am talking about the player who stormed off the court after scoring 44 points, grabbing 12 rebounds, and handing out seven assists. I am talking about LeBron James.

James left the court and the locker room in silence. Not dumbfounded silence, but a hushed demeanor teaming anger. I have never seen him angry. Even when he plead with the media for the Cavs to give a supporting cast following the 2007 NBA Finals in which they were unceremoniously swept by the San Antonio Spurs he did not seem inconsolable.

Then he was a 6 foot 8, 250 lbs. 22-year-old disappointed but not distraught. Now he is different. I do not care what he said in the press conference yesterday. He was pacing from one leg to the other, his face was restrained before he entered back into nice NBA ambassador mode, and then it hit me. He has had his first taste of excruciating bitterness.

A bitter person in any arena, on the hardwood or in life, is not a person to be trifled with. This series may have been the final piece to the development that makes LeBron the best player in the history of the league and the sport. He already has the drive, he has always been willing to pass, he developed his jumper, he worked on his three point shot, he emerged as a great defender, and now he has acquired that taste of failing to meet expectations.

Few truly great players have been jovial. Magic Johnson had a marketable smile that went from ear to ear and helped make everybody feel comfortable loving the game when half the league was railing the white lady, but you saw his fierceness in those battles with the Celtics and those brawls with the Detroit Pistons.

Players like Michael Jordan and Larry Bird are well known for their competitive nature and their ability to hold onto a grudge and use that state of anger to punish opponents at will with voracious efficiency.

Now LeBron has been bested by his good friend Dwight Howard and next season I expect to see a James who does not simply dominate haphazardly because he is an athletic freak in a league of athletic freaks, but because he openly will want to assert his authority and solidify his claim as the best basketball player in the league and a champion.

The anger, the admittance that he did not want to congratulate Howard after loosing a great fight, that signaled the end of the rest of the young stars hope to win any titles over the next decade. Dwight better get his now, otherwise he will join a whole new generation of Hall of Fame players without an NBA championship.

I know that ABC and David Stern wish that LeBron and the Cavs had succeeded for the sake of television ratings for the NBA Finals this year, but what they are getting in return is a league that will once again have the rest of the country watching as everyone tries to dethrone the King.

NBA Tickets

New York’s Best Third Baseman – Alex Rodriguez or David Wright

A few months ago if you asked me who was the best third baseman in New York I would have to begrudgingly give A-Rod the honor. He was an offensive force that successfully made the transition from shortstop to the corner.

Since then it has been confirmed that those offensive numbers were not only aided by playing in the super heat-infused air in Texas that makes every fly ball a potential souvenir in the bleachers, but also by performance enhancing drugs while he was with the Rangers. It has also been alleged that the player who once stated that the player that did not need any chemical help may have been juicing since high school.

Now, the question is who is better, the New York Yankees tarnished Alex Rodriguez or the New York Mets savior, David Wright?

A quick comparison of everything but home run numbers shows that the two are remarkably similar. If you look at the handy dandy seasonal averages on ESPN you find two players that are difficult to distinguish offensively.

Player	R	H	2B	3B	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP
Rodriguez	127	190	34	2	127	78	130	22	0305	.389
Wright	107	190	43	3	113	73	118	22	0312	.392

There are some noticeable differences in runs and RBI, but if you remember that a home run gives you one of each I think you can safely say the numbers are equal once you discount more than a few home runs each year from A-Rod’s numbers.

Since playing third base is an actual defensive position, a defensive comparison must be made. It appears that A-Rod may actually be better, but the higher rate of errors may be a symptom of Wright's superior range that causes him to take more chances.

Player	Total Chances	Putouts	Assists	Errors	Double Plays	Fielding Pct.	Range Factor
Rodriguez	402.5	104.9	282.0	15.5	27.5	.961	2.49
Wright	449.1	109.3	318.5	21.3	26.1	.953	2.67

A more in depth investigation of the players includes a look into the postseason numbers. Most fans would tell you that A-Rod is anything but clutch as soon as the weather turns a little chilly and the pressure is on. However, he has respectable averages throughout 39 games in the playoffs. He is hitting .279, has an OBP Of .373, and an OPS of .856.

While the Yankees have been able to make postseason appearances for five or A-Rod’s six years in Yankee Stadium, most often with a better record than the new postseason dandies, the Boston Red Sox. Wright has been stuck behind the Philadelphia Phillies or the Atlanta Braves as a member of the Mets.

As a result, Wright has had a single postseason of experience, in 2006 for 10 games as the Mets swept the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS and lost to the St. Louis Cardinals in seven games in the NLCS.

His stats through the first 10 games of the playoffs are more than less impressive. They include a .216 average, a .310 OBP, a .378 SLG, and a .688 OPS. However, 10 games after a single postseason run is hardly enough experience to deem a player a clutch bust or a postseason star.

In the end, since the numbers are so close, it comes down to which player I would rather want in my locker room. All proof seems to suggest that while steroids blew up Barry Bonds head, performance enhancing drugs blew up A-Rod’s ego, making him a “clubhouse cancer” who is obsessed with his public perception and is really quite uncomfortable with himself.

Thus, I must give Wright the title. He is a young likeable guy (26 years old) with a bright future that would get more recognition from the casual baseball fan if his team was not playing in the immense shadow of the Yankees.

MLB Tickets

Gout, David Stern, and the NBA Playoffs

I am very excited to watch the Los Angeles Lakers and the Cleveland Cavaliers play in the NBA Finals. I want to watch Kobe and LeBron do battle. I want to see if this is the season James is able to bring home a championship to the much maligned Cleveland sports scene or if Kobe is able to prove that he could win a title in tinsel town without the Big Diesel. The only problem is that I have to wait for two months of meaningless prologue to dispense before I get to see the seven game series.

I must ask, is this format really necessary? Is there something that can or should be done? Is this long process really necessary?

Other leagues have figured out what works. The MLB has wisely kept there postseason limited to eight total teams and three rounds, including a best-of-five divisional round. The front office seems to understand that after 162 games the last thing fans need is another half a season before crowning a champion. Up until last season, the World Series had never fallen below a 10 market share, and much that was probably because of the marketing nightmare that put the Philadelphia Phillies and the Tampa Bay Rays in the series.

The NFL, which is consistently run with the most commonsense despite being a sport based on three-and-a-half-year pro careers and voluntary brain damage, has a mere 12 teams in the playoffs that play 11 total games, seven total game days, and 42.0 Nielson rating for the championship game. Each game has a compelling storyline or relevance before kickoff thanks to the limited postseason play.

Perhaps the NBA can learn something from these leagues.

The NBA Playoffs: The Bloated Carcass of the ‘90s

I have no doubt that David Stern, the commissioner of the NBA who has devised this playoff system, loves this game of basketball. However, he also has a love of money and market share, and this seems to be the biggest problem with creating an enjoyable postseason experience for fans.

To be clear, when a season lasts longer than 50 games, a single elimination tournament, such as March Madness, does not work. The teams have played too long to allow 48 minutes of action decide the victor of each round. Imagine the Cavs knocked out by the Pistons on a single night because LeBron was having a rare bad game and the Pistons starting five were hitting threes all night long. It would be a disaster for the league and really ruin the rest of the playoffs for even the most fringe fan of the NBA.

A series of some sort is necessary to let the law of averages take effect and demand the upset to be something truly worth watching (like the eight seed Golden State Warriors knocking off the number one seed Dallas Mavericks in 2007).

The current four-round, 16 team format has been around since the 1984 playoffs. The NBA is said to of had its golden era during this playoff expansion. This means, that in the most romanticized version of basketball history, nearly all 16 teams were worthy of playing in the postseason and put on a beautiful show of flowing offense and solid defense.

Since I was all of three when this expansion took place I cannot say with any certainty that this was or was not the case, they do not show the average game on ESPN Classic. So, given my ability to decipher some sort of truth from the past, I will take it that basketball was in its heyday with tremendous ratings fueled by a decade long rivalry between Magic Johnson (black, on the West Coast) and Larry Bird (white, on the East Coast).

Before anybody decries me for doubting the greatness of the game from my toddler years let us quote Baz Lurhmann’s “Everybody’s Free (To Wear Sunscreen)” (which is just Mary Schmich’s 1997 Chicago Tribune put to music):

“You too will get old, and when you do you’ll fantasize that when you were young prices were reasonable, politicians were noble and children respected their elders.”

Example of the effects of nostalgia: I recently read a long list of comments from people bemoaning today’s music for the music from their past, when it was great…in the ‘70s. So, there, think about that.

Back to basketball (and more ellipses)…I accept that a 16-team format then has the historical tenure to remain, despite the fact that it means that more than half of the league gets to participate. The problem I have is the response to a waning television market share at the beginning of this century was to expand the first round from a best-of-five game series to a best-of-seven game series in 2002. Why?!?

Stern had heard fans complain that there was too much time between playoff games, so instead of moving the games closer together in the postseason schedule, he added two more to the first round. This is the complete opposite of what every fan, I assume, wanted to see. Now TNT and ESPN get to tout 40 games in 40 nights with only about 15 of those holding any meaning.

This addition coincided with a shallow pool of talent and experience in the league following the end of the Chicago Bulls dynasties and at the beginning of the draft-a-high-schooler years. Meaning, at least four teams (or, really most of whoever was playing in the Eastern Conference) did not even belong in the playoffs because their play was so awful. It was terrible and may be one of the many factors that made fans leave the game behind so quickly.

The play really has improved leaps and bounds in both conferences, but still there is no need to draw out a series that pairs a one seed and an eight seed or a two seed to seven games when it becomes painfully obvious the higher seed is just playing that much better. I say this even though my beloved Bulls are fighting behind the incredible play of Derrick Rose and Ben Gordon to rally to upset the limping Boston Celtics.

I think that really the first two rounds of the NBA playoffs should be a best-of-five series. The entirety of the playoffs should not last from April 20 to June 17 as it did last season for the champion Celtics. It should be a month tops. The proof may be in the numbers.

Despite the highly ballyhooed series between the Celtics and the Los Angeles Lakers, the finals still ended with a mere 9.3 rating according to the Nielson Ratings. To clarify further, that means that the NBA scored a less than double digit rating for fans to even watch six consecutive minutes of a game in the series.

This can be attributed to diehard fans finally losing patience after two months of playoff basketball and the average sports fan being forced to choose between a baseball season in full swing and the petering end of the NBA finals. Really, I do not know how much more revenue this extra two weeks of basketball produces, but I know as a fan that I even missed more than half of the Celtics-Lakers series because I was ready to move on.

This is a league that has yet to even approach the astronomical 18.7 rating from 1998, the last Bulls championship. They are fighting to remain part of the big three and can arguably already be dropped from that category with the strong annual performance by NASCAR, though the latest numbers for the racing circuit are down 11 percent so the NBA can wallow in their failure.

Rather than wallow in another league’s failure, finding comfort in the fact that the NHL seems to have done its best to alienate its fans, and ignoring soccer because the vast majority ignore the sport professionally and only include it in their lives to as a means to exhaust their children, Stern should take a long look at the NBA and the postseason and find some sort of solution, other than adding a European road trip to expand the fan base and market share.

NBA Playoffs

MLB Baseball Curses

Monday morning Chicago sports fan went that extra mile to prove that the fair city deserved the first local ESPN page, ESPN Chicago. According to the Chicago Tribune, disturbingly motivated fans placed a severed goat head outside of Wrigley Field in what can safely be hypothesized to be an attempt to end the Curse of the Billy Goat.

This same stunt was pulled on October 3, 2007. Only that group went one step further and hung the butchered goat from a statue of Harry Caray. Personally, I think if you are going to hang anything from Harry Caray’s statue to appease the baseball gods then you should hang a keg of Old Style. Similarly, if you believe the superstition, then you would know that the Chicago Cubs owners are supposed to sincerely embrace the goats, not mutilate them.

I think the first round sweeps in 2007 to the Arizona Diamondbacks and in 2008 to the Los Angeles Dodgers can be traced back to that grossly misguided little bit of fan help. In fact, I think the 2007 and now the 2009 culprits can be classified as worse fans than Steve Bartman.

Broken Curses

There of course many more curses that have been both the bane of fans existence and, yet, a driving force in the continued popularity of baseball. Some have been broken. The Boston Red Sox put the Curse of the Bambino to bed after an improbable comeback from a 3-0 deficit in the 2004 ALCS. The Red Sox then went onto win the World Series and repeated two years later in 2007. Bill Simmons, the resident Red Sox fanatic on Page 2, theorizes that it was that moment, when the team was down 3 games to zero and well on their way to being swept late in Game 4 that ultimately broke the curse. The situation was so dreadful that the fans finally gave up. The result was perhaps the most incredible series I have seen in any sport every.

The other curse, the Curse of the Black Sox, was broken just a year later when a Chicago White Sox team that experts downplayed all season easily strode through the playoffs to sweep the Houston Astros. This was never one of the most recognized curses. Mainly because the White Sox are the second baseball team in Chicago and, really, the second Sox team, always deferring to their Red cousins when referencing the single nickname, Sox. Still, I think the key to breaking this curse was the hard work Sox fans put in beating up first base umpires at Royals games.

Lingering Curses

It would seem to somebody foreign to the obsession of baseball that the Cubs curse is the last great curse left in MLB. They are however wrong. There are many teams and many bad teams that have needed to find a singular point in time or a single person to blame their struggles.

This team’s troubles have largely been forgotten because of their dominance in the ‘90s, but the Cleveland sports fans have endured much more pain than any collective group of people ever should. They have suffered as Browns fans for the last few decades (a dedication that has included losing their team), they watched Jordan erase their hopes and dreams for an NBA championship time and time again (LeBron James may end that image of Jordan hitting a jumper of Craig Ehlo this season), and, finally, they have suffered since 1948 a World Series victory.

The curse bestowed upon the franchise is the Curse of Rocky Colavito. In the days before opening day in 1960, General Manager Frank Lane traded revered slugging right fielder Rocky Colavito to the Detroit Tigers for Harvey Kuenn, the previous season’s batting champion. Colvato would go on to have a stellar career with the Tigers while Kuenn lasted one season before being traded two useless veterans.

The Indians would spend the next 33 years at the bottom of the standings and become immortalized in the movie Major League for their brand of bad baseball. The organization would turn things around with six AL Central division titles from 1995 to 2001, but would fail to turn any playoff appearance into a World Series win. There is currently no known cure for the curse.

The San Francisco Giants are one of the oldest teams in baseball history, beginning play in 1883. They were quite competitive in their time in New York, but ultimately left the East Coast for a view of the Pacific Ocean in San Francisco in 1958. They also left five World Series behind and have not been able to christen their home for over five decades with a World Series win.

Fans blame this on the Curse of Captain Eddie. Captain Eddie was a Eddie Grant, a New York Giants outfielder who gave his life in World War I and was honored with a plaque in center field at the Polo Grounds. The plaque was left in New York in the move westward and ever since the team has been unable to complete a World Series victoriously.

The team has tried to reproduce the plaque, but even that simple plan has proved difficult, with the replica plaque cracking twice during its construction. My theory is that the plaque at AT&T Park has been re-cursed because the Giants tried to undo their bad luck while Barry Bonds was on the team. The San Francisco baseball fans may love Bonds, but many around the league do not and consider his actions repulsive. Perhaps the answer to un-curse the re-curse is to put an asterisk by his name in the record books or remove his name completely.

Another curse that exists just below the level is the Curse of Donnie Baseball. Not many people would consider waiting eight years plus for another World Series justification for a curse, but these people are not Yankees fans. This is a team with a ridiculous payroll (over $200 million) and justifiably ridiculous expectations.

This particular curse rests on the beloved former Yankee first baseman Don Mattingly. He is on the fringe of Hall of Fame considerations, but during his 14 years as a New York Yankee he was a one-time AL MVP and a World Series virgin. He is a rare Yankee legend that never even played in a series that has become so commonplace to the franchise.

His return as a hitting coach in 2004 seemed to keep the New York Yankees out of the World Series. This includes the series in 2004 in which that failed to capture the final win needed to go to the series after building a three games to none lead over the Boston Red Sox. The curse should be lifted as Mattingly left for the a Dodgers job in 2008, but they still have the curse of A-Rod, a great player unable to hit and win in the postseason, to beat. Bet they love that 10-year, $275-million contract now.

New Curses

I feel that there should really be more curses, but so many of the paltry teams have few single events, trades, and players to blame their annual frustrations. Really, the Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros, Texas Rangers, Milwaukee Brewers, Washington Nationals, and San Diego Padres deserve some sort of story their decades without World Series title (while the Florida Marlins and Arizona Diamondbacks have each been able to win one in the first five years of their existence).

I am developing some sort of demise for the Mariners based on their location in Seattle, a sad city plagued by rain, depression, and departing teams (the Seattle Pilots, now the Milwaukee Brewers, and the Seattle Sonics, now the Oklahoma City Thunder). Perhaps including the tidbit that the city only received another franchise after another team was added north of the 49th parallel in hockey country. I believe the Expos, and soon the Blue Jays, should seen as arguments against baseball anywhere near the Arctic Circle.

The curse for the Houston Astros is obvious though. They are serving eternal penance for bring baseball indoors. I however, cannot find any solid reason for a curse on the Texas Rangers, pennant-less since their inception in 1961, and the San Diego Padres, unable to win a World Series since their inception in 1969.

The only plausible story I can come up with is that there fate is tied to the frozen head and body of Ted Williams. Williams served as the Rangers manager from 1969 to 1972, and the phenomenal, yet surly hitter never managed to win a World Series himself. Since his head and body have been frozen by Alcor, his soul has been unable to witness the Red Sox World Series victory and thus his curmudgeonly attitude that has forever stained the franchise will continue to keep the Rangers down until his remains have been thawed and he can see that the Red Sox have finally won it all, giving him peace and his soul a pleasant attitude, removing the gloomy future of the Rangers.

The Milwaukee Brewers (as the Seattle Pilots), Washington Nationals (as the Montreal Expos), and the San Diego Padres came into MLB along with the Kansas City Royals in 1969. Of the four, only the Royals have won. It is my belief that perhaps the collective suck-itude by all four teams in the postseason has created a plague that will keep each of these teams from winning another title. Other possible causes corresponding to the year 1969 are the last live Beatles performance on top of the roof of Apple Records (a bittersweet day for rock and roll), Richard M. Nixon taking office as the President of the United States, and the opening of the first Gap store.

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Big Broadway Does Not Need A Bailout

Not too long ago Broadway’s struggle was so noteworthy that Saturday Night Live lampooned the entire situation.

The skit attacks, comically of course, the very nature of Broadway’s problem- high ticket prices brought on by large theaters, elaborate set designs, and pretty much a larger than life everything that is oddly appropriate for a craft that revels in odd and quirky characters on and off stage. Months later, it is almost anything but true that those big shows have been the hardest hit.

Off-Broadway productions and new shows have been the most compelling victims of the industry recession. While small stage shows like American Buffalo have faltered and closed despite having star power like Haley Joel Osment, John Leguizamo, and Cedric the Entertainer, Wicked tickets have continued to sell well enough that Playbill reports that the show still has 97.7 percent of the seats filled nearly every performance.

Wicked is not alone in bucking these dire predictions. Just take a look at the weekly grosses. Jersey Boys continues to reach near capacity audiences at August Wilson Theatre and bring in $974,724. Meanwhile August: Osage County, the 2008 Tony Award winning play, can barely draw enough of an audience at the Music Box to fill half the seats. It is not like these are two similarly priced shows either. Jersey Boys cost $102.91 plus whatever surcharges, taxes, and fees the theater and ticket providers add on, but Osage only costs $61.13 plus whatever additional costs.

Want another example. Billy Elliot the Musical manages to consistently breach the million-dollar mark at the Imperial Theatre while another 2008 Tony Award-nominated play, The 39 Steps, struggles to even reach the $200,000 plateau.

It is not a case of pure loud, flashy escapism either. There seems to be a cut off date for success. Shrek the Musical opened in December 2008, at the height of our collective economic freak out, and has failed to gain the traction of past Disney productions like the Lion King, which still manages to draw relatively large audiences (88.9 percent) and bring in big money ($1,048,053 for the week of March 30-April 5).

Some people may say that these shows like Shrek and the other struggling Disney Theatrical productions, the Little Mermaid and Marry Poppins, are simply not great productions. All have received mixed reviews, with the Little Mermaid drawing more criticism than the singing ogre and the original British nanny. However, famous critically lambasted shows like the Phantom of the Opera, have been able to play before strong audiences at the Majestic Theatre (96.7 percent).

It seems rather that in this time of financial strife big productions that have been lauded in rather recent years, like Wicked and Jersey Boys, and musicals that carry some sort of established nostalgia, like Phantom of the Opera, which are the very shows whose characters are paraded in front of the live studio audience at SNL, are the shows that are surviving.

There is no doubt that Broadway has suffered as the domestic tourist industry has disappeared for New York and the international tourists have stopped coming since our economic owes have crossed the oceans. It is great that some sort of stage shows can survive, but it is distressing that so much of the new blood and the captivating smaller productions that truly rely on the characters rather than a blitz of glamour and ballads must be the first and hardest-hit casualties.

That is not to say that there is not hope. West Side Story tickets at the Palace Theatre are the best selling tickets on Broadway right now. This may be an undeniably big production, but it is a rather bare-bones, character-oriented story. Also, the European-import God of Carnage has managed to resuscitate the monetary appreciation for gritty small theater.

I implore anybody who appreciates theater, whether they prefer small dramas or big bonanza musicals, to try and find some time, and maybe skip the movies for a week or two, and look for a seat to a Broadway show. It would terrible to see the revival of the stage brought upon by Wicked and a new age of productions that do not take themselves too seriously be lost for another decade.

If you want to find great seats to these shows, especially the sold out shows, feel free to visit us at the TicketSpecialists. We have seats to every Broadway and Off-Broadway production at a price that is affordable and upfront, without three or four lines of taxes and fees. So come out and see a classic show like South Pacific or a guilty pleasure like Mamma Mia!

The Incredible 2009 Class of the Basketball Hall of Fame

How would you like to have a team in the early ‘90s with Michael Jordan and John Stockton as your backcourt and David Robinson as your starting center? How would you like that team to be coached by Jerry Sloan? Well that, and famed Rutgers Women’s basketball coach C. Vivian Stringer, is the team headed to the Basketball Hall of Fame on September 10, 2009.

The new inductees were announced before the NCAA Championship game, a game I watched and cringed every time the Michigan State guards literally threw the ball to Ty Lawson. I thought and still believe the list very impressive. Each player was in his first year of eligibility and rightfully will be immortalized at the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame in Springfield, Massachusetts.

I, of course wondered, who did not make the cut. Who did not get the 18 of 24 votes necessary to be introduced in September? There were some organizational names I did not recognize (Al Attles?), some old players I forgot even played basketball (Richard Guerin), and some players I was sure would finally get over the 18 vote hump (the Boston Celtics Dennis Johnson and the New York Knicks Bernard King).

I also looked for some sort of unifying theme among the players inducted, and was surprised to find a very simple one, a trait that seems to have disappeared with the advent of free agency: Loyalty, loyalty between a team and the player.

John Stockton spent his entire career with the Utah Jazz, suffering under the thumb of the Los Angeles Lakers, Phoenix Suns, and Chicago Bulls. His teammate, Karl Malone, left for a chance to win an NBA championship with the Los Angeles Lakers, but that was after Stockton retired from professional basketball after 19 seasons.

It simply astounds me that an organization could give nearly two decades of its history to one (or two) players. During that time the Jazz never had a losing record, never missed the playoffs, and went to the NBA Finals twice. Stockton consistently averaged double digits in points and was a threat to lead the league in assists.

John Stockton Highlights with music dubbed over some NBA TV clips

David Robinson finished his obligation with the U.S. Navy and then spent 14 seasons tormenting the low post with the San Antonio Spurs, mentoring the player who will go down as the best power forward in history. I do not remember even remember a whiff of a rumor of him being unhappy in west Texas.

Instead this 7-foot-1, 250-pound athletic machine seemed happy to pour his heart into leading this team in vain during the ‘90s as every team in the Western Conference tried to beat the Bulls during the reign of Jordan. He even stayed with the team and accepted his role as teacher, passing the torch onto Tim Duncan, who would be the NBA Finals MVP both times the Spurs won (1999, 2003), with Robinson on the roster.

David Robinson’s 71 point night in 1994 with video from the NBA

Michael Jordan did not spend his entire career with the Chicago Bulls, but I, and many others, are willing to dismiss his last two comeback seasons with the Washington Wizards as the inability of Jordan to let go of the game. The portion of his career, when he played for the Bulls from 1984 to 1998, is what every basketball fan remembers. The Bulls wanted to keep Jordan and Jordan wanted to stay with the Bulls to win a championship, something both sides succeeded at in excess.

The Bulls built around him after his years of struggling to fit his ultra-competitive drive into a team concept. Jordan is simply amazing. His long list of accolades is best summed up by the statue of him flying toward the rim in front of the United Center that stood before MJ came back and completed another three-peat. He was a living legend that perhaps transcends the sport and made this game of basketball my favorite game.

Jordan’s top ten plays according to what I am is assuming is an NBA Video from the sweet ‘90s graphics and soundtrack

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