Tagged As: Albert Pujos, baseball, MLB, Sports, zach greinke, Joe Mauer, Jason Marquis, Triple Crown

The major league baseball season is a long one. At 162 games it dwarfs the NFL (16 games), NBA (82 games), and the NHL (82 games). Sure that gives fans plenty of chances to sit in the bleachers and enjoy a lazy summer afternoon with a hotdog and a few beers (and then subsequently spend the next month staying in on the weekends waiting for the ban account to heal), but the long season also makes pleasantly surprising statistics anomalies in the long run.

This means that all those players we looked upon with wonder as they approached some record and were putting together impressive seasons fall back to earth shattering our midseason expectations, which is fitting when you consider how many fans hopes for their team are painfully beaten down as well. The question, then, is will these players that follow be able to beat the odds and actually keep up with there midseason form.

Albert Pujols, St Louis Cardinals

Albert Pujols is in the running for the Triple Crown in the National League. He is leading the league in home runs (34), RBI (90), and is second in batting average (.333, 12 points behind Hanley Ramirez. Pujols homerun lead is currently 10, so I really do not see him have much of a problem maintaining his powerful swing. In fact, I do not see him having a problem keeping any of his key stats up where they are now. He is playing for a team that is in the midst of a pennant race. His Cardinals are trying to fend off a Brewers team that does not realize they are that good and a Chicago Cubs team that is slowly beginning to realize they have an incredible pitching staff and a pretty good lineup (at least any other year).

I suppose the real question is the players that are competing for the lead in the same categories will be able to spoil his shot at becoming the first Triple Crown winner in the NL since Joe Medwick in 1937. Prince Fielder is the only player even close to Pujols in the RBI category with 83. Fielder will need his guys to continue drawing walks (the Brewers cannot hit, yet draw the fourth most walks in the NL) to give him a chance to catch and surpass Pujols.

The other player who could ruin Pujols quest is Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez, the shortstop for the Marlins is hitting .345 and simply needs to continue his incredible season. The reality is that Ramirez, though only 25, already has a season under his belt where he hit .332 and he has hit .370 in June and the only reason his average is so low is that he had a miserable April (he hit .289). Ramirez has the career history and has been tearing up pitchers since his average start, meaning Pujols will need to bump his average to try and catch Ramirez, which only makes his job harder. I do not see Pujols winning the Triple Crown, but do see him accepting the NL MVP in the fall.

Zach Grienke, Kansas City Royals

Zach Grienke is having a Cy Young worthy season with a 2.08 ERA, 10 wins, and 136 strikeout after the All Star break. The question is whether he will be able to keep up the incredible performance in the mound despite the Royals terrible play.

Luckily as a pitcher the job is almost separate from the team. The position players have to go out every day and face their losing ways. Grienke only has to come out every five or six days and try and throw another incredible game. Yes, he still will feel the dread in the locker room, but he can compartmentalize his duty from the rest of the team and the season (he may be kicking himself for signing that four year extension in January though).

Grienke is on the path to having a career low in ERA and a career high in wins, which means he is entering new territory as a player. This could be a major hurdle once he truly realizes what he is doing. Then again, he is a professional athlete, so this is what he lives for. Something that unequivocally falls in his favor is that he has only allowed more than three runs in an outing twice. If his team can manage to keep up with their 3.89 run average then that means that his 10 wins should be more than 15 and possibly near 20 by the end of the season.

I think he will maintain his Cy Young numbers and that his teammates will eventually play inspired ball during his starts since they are bound to realize he is their only positive point this season. The team started out hot, but fell back into familiar trenches at the bottom of the AL Central. They just need to understand that Grienke’s season may be the only thing to build around. Maybe Zach will be kind enough to bring the Cy Yong Award around the locker room to let his teammates know he is thankful for their effort.

Jason Marquis, Colorado Rockies

Jason Marquis is a starting pitcher for the Rockies, a fact that elicits sympathy. However, he is amazingly leading the NL and MLB in wins. He has 12 wins despite playing half his games in Coors Field. He is also sporting a 3.49 ERA along with a 1.26 WHIP. The stats get even weirder. He has a 3.80 ERA at home and is averaging more than six innings a start in the thin mountain air.

Can Jason Marquis actually end the season the league wins leader? If you look at his month by month you will see that his stats actually improve. His ERA goes down with each month. The bad news is that he is not a strike out pitcher. Marquis has just 61 strikeouts in 131.1 innings pitched. That means a whole lot more balls are in lay over the course of the game, which is why he allows his opponents to bat .250, which is rather unimpressive from the pitchers side.

Another confounding couple of stats is that Marquis has only allowed nine home runs, but has allowed 181 total bases. This means that gives up few home runs, but many extra base hits. This is a bad combination.

Then there is another layer of unforeseen intricacy to the question, the Rockies play in the NL West. The only team any pitcher has to fear in the division is the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Rockies will play other teams as well, but most of their games, and thus likely many of Marquis’s starts, will be against his own division. So, despite the relative ease with which hitters are abusing Marquis, he may not have to face too many teams that can punish him. Overall, I return to my introduction and the statement about statistical anomalies. Eventually the thin air will leave Marquis too tired or give the balls too much lift, thwarting his campaign to lead the league in wins.

Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins

Joe Mauer missed the first month of the baseball season, but returned on fire. He leads the American League in on base percentage, slugging percentage, and is closing in on Ichiro Suzuki for the batting average title. He also leads his catchers in the AL with 15 home runs. Will Mauer be able to keep up this incredible culmination of patience, power, and contact at the plate?

Historically this is not too much of a stretch for Mauer. In 2006 he batted .347 and last season he hit .328. In both seasons he won the batting titles. This surge of power (and thus increase in slugging percentage) is a new thing. Mauer claims he has always had the potential for power and his teammates have joked that once he grew into his body the rest of the league better watch out. Apparently they were correct.

I see Mauer keeping up his performance. I think that since he missed winter ball and spring training he will have less wear and tear on his body come later in the season. I do not see Twins skipper Ron Gardenhire having any issue moving Mauer to DH for a few games so he can bounce back from the physical demand of playing catcher. If the Twins are able to make a run for the AL Central title I could even see Mauer winning the AL MVP.

There are plenty of other stories to contemplate (can Ichiro win the batting title again, can Prince Fielder maintain a .300 average, can Dan Haren keep his ERA under 2.00, etc), but I think these are the most compelling questions as the rest of our collective sports consciousness moves onto the divisional races and we wonder if the New York Yankees can catch the Boston Red Sox or if the Tampa Bay Rays can put together a surge or if the Philadelphia Phillies can conquer the NL East while the New York Mets continue playing on life support.

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