Tagged As: baseball, MLB, Sports, Rays, Yankees, Red Sox

This team has the third best batting average in the league. This team has the second best on base percentage and slugging percentage in the league. This team has scored the most runs and has stolen the most bases in the league. This team averages more than a run more than their opponents. This team is leading the division with an absurd win-loss record, right? Wrong. This team is hovering around .500 and is in fourth place in the American League East. This is team is the Tampa Bay Rays.

Somehow the Rays, who have the AL homerun leader (Carlos Pena), MLB stolen base leader (Carl Crawford), and five starting position players batting over .300, are failing to capitalize with a +72 run differentiation. For those who do not know, the run differentiation is simply the runs scored minus the runs allowed. This is perhaps a more telling stat than ERA since the unearned runs are included, not letting the pitcher or the defense on the field off the hook.

Only two other teams have close to that level of run differentiation, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Boston Red Sox. The Los Angeles Dodgers have a run differentiation of +82 and enjoy a record of 44-23 and a nine game lead on the next closest team in the NL West. The Boston Red Sox have a run differentiation of +65 and lead the AL East.

The Rays should be right up there with the Red Sox, the Dodgers, and even the second place New York Yankees in their own division. The first thing I wondered about was whether the high run production was a statistical holdover from a series of 10 strong games and was simply throwing off the more indiciative numbres or whether the team could either score in double digits or not at all. A look at the Rays schedule showed me that the team regularly scores runs in bunches and that there was not a strong feast or famine pattern.

Next I looked at the pitching, since I noticed that the team ERA was good for eighth in the AL at 4.29 but the club only had 28 quality starts. Sure enough, something jumped out at me.

Within the five-man starting rotation two pitchers have an ERA well below the team average. James Shields and Matt Garza each have an ERA below 4.00 (3.52 and 3.83 respectively) and they accounted for 16 of the 28 quality starts. Starter Jeff Niemann has an ERA near the team average with an ERA of 4.21 and only has four quality starts. The two remaining starting pitchers, Andy Sonnanstine and Scott Kazmir both have incredibly high ERAs (6.65 and 7.69 respectively).

The bullpen is equally polarized. Randy Choate, J.P. Howell, and Lance Cormier are relievers with an ERA below 2.04. Jeff Nelson, Dan Wheeler, and Grant Balfour have an ERA over 4.50.

The picture got a little more difficult to understand when I looked at the records. Shields, Garza, and Niemann have a combined record of 15-14 with no single pitcher accounting for more than six wins despite the superior performances on the mound. Menawhile, Sonnanstine and Kazmir are 9-10 when they should actually be closer to 3-16.

It seems that there are equal parts good and bad on this pitching staff, meaning that even if the Rays can score 5.7 runs a game it may not be enough for a combined effort of a starter and the bullpen to still not blow the game. The numbers still seem eradic though, and much more like a statistical aberration that will correct itself over the course of a 162-game season.

Still it helps that David Price seems to have regained control over his pitching location since coming back from AAA Durham after Kazmir was put on the DL. If he can pitch half-way decently, then the Rays should turn more of those would be wins into actual wins and close the six game lead between the Rays and the first place Red Sox.

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