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A third of the MLB season has passed and the early season surprises have subsided. The Toronto Blue Jays unceremoniously fell from first place in the AL East after losing nine straight in the final two weeks of May. The Pittsburgh Pirates pitching staff, other than Zack Duke, fell apart and the general manager quickly disappointed fans by trading Nate McLouth, firmly reestablishing the keen sense of doubt and depression at PNC Park. Plenty more inflated individual stats on every team deflated as the law of averages finally won again. Still, some surprises have remained, lingering, threatening to go from an early season trend to one of the dominant storylines of the year.

The National League Central

The Chicago Cubs were supposed to run away with the National League Central for the third year in a row. The Milwaukee Brewers were supposed to be crippled by the loss of pitcher C.C. Sabathia to the New York Yankees and the loss of pitcher Ben Sheets to free agency and an elbow injury. The St. Louis Cardinals were supposed to finally fully embrace the idea of rebuilding.

Well, right now the Chicago Cubs are in third place, struggling to find their high-priced offense, which currently ranks 13th in the National League in runs scored. The Brewers are on top of the division with an explosive offense, a decent starting rotation, and an excellent bullpen. The Cardinals are hanging close thanks to another MVP-type season by Albert Pujos and pretty solid pitching staff. The Cincinnati Reds are competing as well thanks to pitching and the Pittsburgh Pirates only recently traded their way out of finishing the season at or above .500 for the first time in 16 seasons.

There is still time for the Central to realign itself and chances are it will come down to a battle between the Cubs and the Brewers again this season, but the rest of the summer will remain entertaining in the NL Central, which has suddenly become one of the most competitive divisions in baseball.

The Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers were riding the bat of Manny Ramirez until May 7th, when he began his 50-game suspension for apparently trying to ward off menopause. The team was 21-8 and everyone expected the Dodgers to perform like they did in 2008 before trading for Manny, suddenly giving the Giants and whoever else felt like scoring runs in the National League West a chance to catch up.

Well, Los Angeles has gone 18-12 without the star slugger thanks to incredible pitching despite losing staff ace Hiroki Kurado on opening day and scoring runs with small ball. The Dodgers have the best ERA, highest average, and the most runs scored in the National League. It appears that while Ramirez’s personality can linger like the plague in a locker room when he is unhappy, a happy Manny can have an equally positive lasting effect on a lineup that struggled to hit better than a Triple A ball club last season with much the same roster.

Tampa Bay Rays

Nobody was sure what to expect from the Tampa Bay Rays this season. Last season might have been a breakout season or an anomaly. Nobody was sure if the offense was going to remain as potent or if the pitching was going to remain as solid as in 2008.

Turns out the offense would remain among the best in baseball and the pitching would remain solid in the American League. It turns out that the Rays can not turn those impressive stats, most notably a run differential of +49, into wins. The Rays are 29-29 and trailing the New York Yankees, the Boston Red Sox, and the Toronto Blue Jays despite averaging .8 runs more a game than their opponents.

In baseball, .8 runs is a huge number, the second best in MLB in fact. While it is surprising to see the Rays struggling despite having the numbers on their side, it seems pretty obvious that over the long season they should eventually jump a few spots in the standings and validate their overall solid all around performance.

Raul Ibanez

This summer the Philadelphia Phillies signed Raul Ibanez to a three-year $31.5 million contract. Many baseball experts were concerned that the Phillies front office had gone rabid after winning the World Series. Ibanez came into the season 36 years old with waning power numbers after an unappreciated career with the Seattle Mariners. To give him $10 a season to replace Pat Burrell, a poor fielder and strike out machine at the plate, seemed like an overreaction.

Turns out there is a reason the Phillies front office put together a championship team and I am just writing about baseball as a fan. Ibanez has to the early leader for the National League MVP with a .329 average, 19 home runs, 54 RBI, and 46 runs. He is on pace to set career highs in just about every statistical category.

If you look at Ibanez’s career stats in hindsight you will note that he had no protection in Seattle and that in Philly he has Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jayson Werth, and Shane Victorino so whether Ibanez is hitting third, fourth or fifth he is likely to see a pitcher worried about the next batter or a pitcher fatigued after getting through the front of the most dangerous lineup in the National League.

The Release of Tom Glavine

The Atlanta Braves were stuck somewhere between rebuilding and competing in the National League after signing Derek Lowe and trading for Javier Vazquez over the winter. The fans did not know what to expect, with a team that spent money on pitching but not hitting. They only knew that they were at least going to get to watch Tom Glavine finish his days in MLB as a member of the Braves, the team that the 300-game winner and future Hall of Fame pitcher came up with.

Then last week the Braves released Glavine, stating that he simply was not going to be able to compete at a major league level. The conspiracy spin is that the Braves front office, who just traded for Nate McLouth, was trying to avoid paying Glavine his $1 million dollar bonus for making the MLB roster. The Braves fans are upset, the wide spectrum of fans are upset, and Glavine is upset. The Associated Press reported today that Glavine may file a grievance against the team.

The official line from the general manager Frank Wren is really quite ludicrous. The line is that the team was not sure if Glavine would be able to handle the hitters after surgery on his elbow and shoulder.

Glavine was brought back for the same reason as Ken Griffey Jr. in Seattle, to appease the fans. Griffey was brought back because the Mariners fans are getting sick of losing and Glavine was coming back because he could soften the blow as Braves fans adjusted to the fact their team was no longer to be competitive after the 2008 season. Then, suddenly the Braves had a chance to compete and they dropped the sappy season storyline to bring in a very good center fielder for the future. It may have been a solid move for the team talent-wise, but it was a disaster and a surprise public relations-wise.

The season is only a third of the way done, so whether these teams are able to keep up the surprising or confounding floundering play is anything but set in stone, whether Ibanez will win the MVP at the age of 37 is still a mystery, and whether there will be anymore surprise player moves is still up in the air as the baseball season soap opera continues.

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