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Beating the Odds in the NFL Playoffs

The NFL tickets for the Divisional Playoffs have been set for a week and Las Vegas has set line for the games. The experts have weighed in and it looks like a clear sweep by the higher seeds. This does not make for much exciting football, but thankfully for all the odds that are set and all the games that are analyzed (and overanalyzed) there are still upsets every year. Anybody remember the Giants last season?

For each of these underdogs to live another day, certain things have to happen. None of them involve a career ending injury. These are the playoffs so in reality every franchise brings something to the table.

To start lets visit a hypothetical game at LP Field where the Baltimore Ravens beat the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee has the number two scoring defense in the league and Baltimore has the number three. They have similar offenses as well. The only way the Ravens have a chance is if they win the turnover battle. When all things are equal it is who has the ball more that will decide the winner.

The next game is expected to be a blowout. The Arizona Cardinals are being spotted nine points before they get to LP Field to meet the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are a run heavy team that has a defense made to bend a little bit and get some turnovers.

Kurt Warner will have to return to MVP-caliber form. He will also need Anquan Boldin to fight through his hamstring injury. He is going to need all three receivers (including Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston) to make this game a shootout. I do not believe Edgerrin James or Tim Hightower is going to be terribly effective, even if the Panthers have been susceptible to the run all season long.

The Cardinals need to play to their strength on the road. The second week in the playoffs is probably not the time to try and develop a new offensive strategy, especially on the road.

Sunday the New York Giants host the Philadelphia Eagles at Giants Stadium. The Giants are up four points, but already many people are looking for Philly to be the emotional upset of the weekend. I actually think this game will be the blowout.

The Giants Brandon Jacobs is back to complete the three-headed beast in the backfield and Brian Westbrook is going to play even though he has not practiced all week. The defenses and the offenses may put similar numbers, but the Eagles will have to hope that Jacobs is not near full strength and that Eli Manning still has not figured out who is going to replace Plaxico Burress as his go to receiver. Meanwhile, McNabb will have to make Kevin Curtis, Reggie Brown, DeSean Jackson, and somebody else look like a top tiered receiver unit to keep the Giants from ganging up on Westbrook and himself.

The last game is between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the San Diego Chargers at Heinz Field. There have been so many injuries to Ben Roethlisberger this season that he has been limping through the final games, relying on the incredible defense to save the day. The Chargers are on an emotional high, but Philip Rivers is a perpetual playoff dud (unless he is playing the Colts).

The Chargers will need a repeat performance from Darren Sproles and Mike Scifres on special teams to keep the Steelers pinned down near their own endzone. Then the offense will have to avoid turnovers at all costs. Somewhere in there the Chargers will have to score a couple of touchdowns. The Chargers defense has been playing well enough to stop Willie Parker.

Basically look for a replay of Week 11 when the Chargers won 11-10 to upset the Steelers. It is not possible to have a shootout against the Steelers, especially in Pittsburgh.

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